{"F": {"ts_code": "002845.SZ", "name": "同兴达", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "光学光电子", "sw3": "面板", "ind": "光学光电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170125", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.47, "pe_ttm": 54.3056, "pb": 1.7514, "dv_ttm": 0.297, "total_mv": 441212.1399, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [9.9, 9.7, 6.1, 8.1, 6.9, 8.0], "rev_series": [106.0, 128.6, 84.2, 85.1, 95.6, 99.7], "np_series": [2.6, 3.6, -0.4, 0.5, 0.3, 0.4], "roe_series": [14.2, 14.1, -1.5, 1.8, 1.2, 1.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 102.6, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_ttm": -2.0, "fcf_yield": -4.6, "ocf_yield": 1.1, "gm_median": 8.0, "gm_std": 1.2, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": -3.8, "npm_median": 0.3, "roe_median": 1.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 23.7, "fix_assets": 24.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.75, "capex_dep": 0.98, "interest_debt": 20.4, "debt_ebitda": 4.7, "debt_ratio": 73.5, "debt_mv": 46.1, "payout": 40.4, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 5.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 6.0, "np_yoy": 136.1, "np_vol": 109.3, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["液晶显示模组", 28.0], ["液晶显示屏及模块", 28.0], ["摄像类产品", 19.0], ["摄像头", 19.0]], "ret_prev_year": -7.0, "ret_prev2_year": -14.3, "ret_ytd": -4.0, "ret_pivot": 19.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.6, "ret_60": -11.6, "ret_120": -13.3, "ret_250": -13.8, "mdd_250": -29.0, "vol_250": 43.3, "pos_52w": 81.2}, "S": {"duration": 74, "pricing": 38, "hard": 38, "bondness": 44}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 54.3 倍、股息率 0.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 8.0%、固定资产占比 24%、有息负债/EBITDA 4.7 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 24%,毛利率近 5 年中位 8.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.6%(经营现金流/市值 1.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 8.0%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 24%,资本开支/折旧 0.98 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 54.3 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -14%,最大回撤 -29%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 81%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / -12% / -13%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光学光电子」95 家中位:PE 61.6 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 19.3% / 固定资产占比 31% / 分红率 43%。", "同兴达:PE 比行业中位低 7.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 11.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.7个百分点。"]}}