{"F": {"ts_code": "002842.SZ", "name": "翔鹭钨业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "小金属", "sw3": "钨", "ind": "小金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170119", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 34.14, "pe_ttm": 18.389, "pb": 6.7763, "dv_ttm": 0.4042, "total_mv": 1116966.915, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [11.6, 12.8, 9.9, 6.0, 5.8, 14.4], "rev_series": [12.9, 15.2, 16.7, 18.0, 17.5, 24.1], "np_series": [0.4, 0.2, -0.4, -1.3, -0.9, 1.4], "roe_series": [4.3, 2.5, -4.2, -14.5, -11.3, 14.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 41.1, "np_ttm": 6.1, "ocf_ttm": -3.5, "fcf_ttm": -4.4, "fcf_yield": -3.9, "ocf_yield": -3.2, "gm_median": 9.9, "gm_std": 3.5, "gm_stab": 0.65, "gm_chg_2022": -1.7, "npm_median": -2.5, "roe_median": -4.2, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 14.0, "fix_assets": 6.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 6.78, "capex_dep": 1.28, "interest_debt": 14.6, "debt_ebitda": 1.7, "debt_ratio": 63.8, "debt_mv": 13.0, "payout": 30.0, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 12.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 182.9, "np_yoy": 2522.4, "np_vol": 187.9, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 73.0, "earn_yield": 5.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["粉末制品", 35.0], ["硬质合金", 10.0], ["其他副产品", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 135.9, "ret_prev2_year": -29.2, "ret_ytd": 138.4, "ret_pivot": 577.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -11.0, "ret_60": -12.9, "ret_120": -0.4, "ret_250": 184.7, "mdd_250": -45.2, "vol_250": 75.8, "pos_52w": 65.0}, "S": {"duration": 37, "pricing": 70, "hard": 22, "bondness": 25}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["商品定价", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 6.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 18 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 64%,有息负债 15 亿,经营现金流/市值 -3.2%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 9.9%),硬资产占比 14%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.9%(经营现金流/市值 -3.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 9.9%,稳定度 65%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 1.28 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 18.4 倍 粗算,约 73%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 185%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 76%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -11% / -13% / -0%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「小金属」29 家中位:PE 36.9 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 18.3% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 35%。", "翔鹭钨业:PE 比行业中位低 18.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.7个百分点。"]}}