{"F": {"ts_code": "002837.SZ", "name": "英维克", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "其他专用设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20161229", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 63.91, "pe_ttm": 166.221, "pb": 22.7703, "dv_ttm": 0.2042, "total_mv": 8162148.0556, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [32.4, 29.4, 29.8, 32.4, 28.7, 27.9], "rev_series": [17.0, 22.3, 29.2, 35.3, 45.9, 60.7], "np_series": [1.8, 2.1, 2.8, 3.4, 4.5, 5.2], "roe_series": [13.7, 12.6, 14.1, 14.9, 16.8, 16.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 65.1, "np_ttm": 4.9, "ocf_ttm": 4.5, "fcf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_yield": 0.1, "ocf_yield": 0.6, "gm_median": 29.4, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -2.6, "npm_median": 9.5, "roe_median": 14.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.8, "fix_assets": 11.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.7, "pb_calc": 22.77, "capex_dep": 5.89, "interest_debt": 16.3, "debt_ebitda": 2.0, "debt_ratio": 58.2, "debt_mv": 2.0, "payout": 32.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 27.6, "np_cagr3": 23.0, "rev_yoy": 17.2, "np_yoy": -14.3, "np_vol": 9.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.6, "consensus_n": 11, "fwd_pe": 65.7, "fwd_pe2": 37.7, "fwd_g1": 153.0, "fwd_g2": 74.0, "peg": 0.89, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["机房温控节能设备", 19.0], ["机房温控节能产品", 19.0], ["机柜温控节能产品", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 247.0, "ret_prev2_year": 94.4, "ret_ytd": -22.1, "ret_pivot": 430.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 14.3, "ret_60": -4.8, "ret_120": -14.4, "ret_250": 22.3, "mdd_250": -50.1, "vol_250": 71.7, "pos_52w": 68.7}, "S": {"duration": 98, "pricing": 54, "hard": 22, "bondness": 19}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 166.2 倍,估值里约 97% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 14%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(11 篇研报)前瞻 PE 65.7 倍,次年 37.7 倍,PEG 0.89。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 14%,毛利率近 5 年中位 29.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.1%(经营现金流/市值 0.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.4%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 5.89 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 166.2 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 22%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 72%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 14% / -5% / -14%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "英维克:PE 比行业中位高 123.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.2个百分点。"]}}