{"F": {"ts_code": "002833.SZ", "name": "弘亚数控", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "其他专用设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20161228", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 18.75, "pe_ttm": 18.1637, "pb": 2.7395, "dv_ttm": 4.7459, "total_mv": 804505.6875, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [32.8, 33.1, 30.3, 33.3, 32.2, 32.1], "rev_series": [16.9, 23.7, 21.3, 26.8, 26.9, 24.3], "np_series": [3.5, 5.2, 4.5, 5.9, 5.2, 4.3], "roe_series": [22.3, 26.3, 19.2, 22.6, 18.7, 15.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 27.0, "np_ttm": 4.4, "ocf_ttm": 7.4, "fcf_ttm": 6.1, "fcf_yield": 7.6, "ocf_yield": 9.2, "gm_median": 32.2, "gm_std": 1.1, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": -2.5, "npm_median": 22.0, "roe_median": 19.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 31.5, "fix_assets": 14.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.69, "capex_dep": 1.2, "interest_debt": 8.1, "debt_ebitda": 1.2, "debt_ratio": 29.7, "debt_mv": 10.1, "payout": 86.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.5, "np_cagr3": -1.8, "rev_yoy": 21.7, "np_yoy": 5.1, "np_vol": 26.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 72.0, "earn_yield": 5.5, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 15.9, "fwd_pe2": 13.4, "fwd_g1": 14.0, "fwd_g2": 18.0, "peg": 0.88, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["封边机", 14.0], ["数控钻(含多排钻)", 11.0], ["加工中心", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 1.5, "ret_prev2_year": -0.1, "ret_ytd": 18.9, "ret_pivot": 48.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.6, "ret_60": 7.6, "ret_120": 4.6, "ret_250": 10.5, "mdd_250": -28.1, "vol_250": 33.8, "pos_52w": 86.4}, "S": {"duration": 36, "pricing": 56, "hard": 50, "bondness": 78}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["现金流红利", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 14 亿,占总资产 32%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 32.2%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.5 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 7.6%,股息率 4.7%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 72%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 32%)和定价权(毛利率 32.2% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.6%(经营现金流/市值 9.2%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 32.2%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 1.20 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 18.2 倍 粗算,约 72%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 10%,最大回撤 -28%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 86%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 8% / 5%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "弘亚数控:PE 比行业中位低 24.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 3.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 13.5个百分点。"]}}