{"F": {"ts_code": "002832.SZ", "name": "比音勒芬", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "纺织服饰", "sw2": "服装家纺", "sw3": "非运动服装", "ind": "服装家纺", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20161223", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 26.6, "pe_ttm": 24.213, "pb": 2.7987, "dv_ttm": 2.7068, "total_mv": 1518080.886, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [73.9, 76.7, 77.4, 78.6, 77.0, 75.1], "rev_series": [23.0, 27.2, 28.8, 35.4, 40.0, 43.1], "np_series": [5.0, 6.2, 7.3, 9.1, 7.8, 5.5], "roe_series": [22.8, 22.1, 19.7, 20.2, 15.7, 10.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 48.1, "np_ttm": 6.3, "ocf_ttm": 8.8, "fcf_ttm": 4.6, "fcf_yield": 3.1, "ocf_yield": 5.8, "gm_median": 77.0, "gm_std": 1.1, "gm_stab": 0.99, "gm_chg_2022": 3.5, "npm_median": 23.0, "roe_median": 19.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.0, "fix_assets": 11.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.8, "capex_dep": 5.62, "interest_debt": 7.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.5, "debt_ratio": 28.7, "debt_mv": 4.7, "payout": 62.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 14.4, "np_cagr3": -8.9, "rev_yoy": 23.7, "np_yoy": 18.4, "np_vol": 22.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 79.0, "earn_yield": 4.1, "consensus_n": 25, "fwd_pe": 20.5, "fwd_pe2": 16.7, "fwd_g1": 18.0, "fwd_g2": 23.0, "peg": 0.89, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["上装类", 19.0], ["上衣", 19.0], ["外套类", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": -29.4, "ret_prev2_year": -31.5, "ret_ytd": 86.5, "ret_pivot": 70.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.0, "ret_60": 30.5, "ret_120": 64.6, "ret_250": 67.6, "mdd_250": -12.4, "vol_250": 32.3, "pos_52w": 100.0}, "S": {"duration": 45, "pricing": 83, "hard": 24, "bondness": 45}, "label": "定价权·品牌", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["没有硬资产(固定资产占比 15%)但有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 77.0%,稳定度 99%、ROE 近 5 年中位 19.7%。", "自由现金流/市值 3.1%,分红率 62%,分子跟得上通胀。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 77.0%),硬资产占比 15%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "分子跟得上通胀、久期不长,加息期抗跌;放水期弹性不如科技。属船票一侧的'非债券'部分。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.1%(经营现金流/市值 5.8%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 77.0%,稳定度 99%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.5 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 15%,资本开支/折旧 5.62 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 24.2 倍 粗算,约 79%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 68%,最大回撤 -12%,年化波动 32%,现价在 52 周高点的 100%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 30% / 65%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「服装家纺」60 家中位:PE 37.6 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 41.5% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 66%。", "比音勒芬:PE 比行业中位低 13.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 35.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.9个百分点。"]}}