{"F": {"ts_code": "002831.SZ", "name": "裕同科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "包装印刷", "sw3": "纸包装", "ind": "包装印刷", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20161216", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 27.53, "pe_ttm": 22.1863, "pb": 3.1139, "dv_ttm": 3.17, "total_mv": 3546775.5183, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [26.8, 21.5, 23.7, 26.2, 24.8, 25.5], "rev_series": [117.9, 148.5, 163.6, 152.2, 171.6, 172.4], "np_series": [11.2, 10.2, 14.9, 14.4, 14.1, 15.9], "roe_series": [15.1, 11.5, 15.3, 13.5, 12.5, 13.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 175.8, "np_ttm": 16.1, "ocf_ttm": 27.2, "fcf_ttm": 18.8, "fcf_yield": 5.3, "ocf_yield": 7.7, "gm_median": 24.8, "gm_std": 1.6, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -3.1, "npm_median": 9.2, "roe_median": 13.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 31.9, "fix_assets": 71.8, "goodwill_ratio": 1.9, "pb_calc": 3.11, "capex_dep": 1.24, "interest_debt": 58.8, "debt_ebitda": 1.8, "debt_ratio": 47.7, "debt_mv": 16.6, "payout": 60.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 1.8, "np_cagr3": 2.3, "rev_yoy": 0.2, "np_yoy": 1.1, "np_vol": 19.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 77.0, "earn_yield": 4.5, "consensus_n": 22, "fwd_pe": 17.2, "fwd_pe2": 14.7, "fwd_g1": 29.0, "fwd_g2": 17.0, "peg": 1.01, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 43.0], ["纸制精品包装", 27.0], ["包装配套产品", 8.0], ["包装产品", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 9.7, "ret_prev2_year": 2.2, "ret_ytd": 39.3, "ret_pivot": 110.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.5, "ret_60": -9.5, "ret_120": 14.3, "ret_250": 60.8, "mdd_250": -34.4, "vol_250": 49.6, "pos_52w": 72.3}, "S": {"duration": 43, "pricing": 50, "hard": 51, "bondness": 64}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 61%、股息率 3.2%、营收 3 年复合 1.8%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.8 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 32%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 24.8%,稳定度 93%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.3%(经营现金流/市值 7.7%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.8%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 1.24 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 22.2 倍 粗算,约 77%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 61%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 50%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -10% / 14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「包装印刷」46 家中位:PE 38.9 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 33% / 分红率 50%。", "裕同科技:PE 比行业中位低 16.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点。"]}}