{"F": {"ts_code": "002829.SZ", "name": "星网宇达", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "航天装备Ⅱ", "sw3": "航天装备Ⅲ", "ind": "航天装备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20161213", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 21.18, "pe_ttm": 245.5223, "pb": 2.606, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 440140.3092, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [47.4, 47.0, 44.8, 36.1, 21.2, 23.3], "rev_series": [6.9, 7.7, 10.7, 7.7, 4.2, 3.8], "np_series": [1.1, 1.6, 2.2, 0.5, -2.3, -1.1], "roe_series": [11.7, 15.4, 17.9, 3.3, -12.6, -6.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.2, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": -0.6, "fcf_ttm": -0.7, "fcf_yield": -1.5, "ocf_yield": -1.4, "gm_median": 36.1, "gm_std": 10.7, "gm_stab": 0.7, "gm_chg_2022": -2.6, "npm_median": 7.5, "roe_median": 3.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 5.9, "fix_assets": 1.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.6, "pb_calc": 2.61, "capex_dep": 0.44, "interest_debt": 1.3, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 22.5, "debt_mv": 2.9, "payout": null, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -29.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -37.2, "np_yoy": 799.7, "np_vol": 219.7, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["无人系统", 42.0], ["信息感知", 31.0], ["卫星通信", 19.0], ["其他收入", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 65.7, "ret_prev2_year": -29.9, "ret_ytd": -32.6, "ret_pivot": 29.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.7, "ret_60": 12.0, "ret_120": -16.0, "ret_250": -6.8, "mdd_250": -53.6, "vol_250": 56.4, "pos_52w": 61.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 48, "hard": 9, "bondness": 23}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 246 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 22%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 -1.4%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 6%,毛利率近 5 年中位 36.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.5%(经营现金流/市值 -1.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 36.1%,稳定度 70%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 0.44 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 245.5 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -7%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 56%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 12% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航天装备Ⅱ」9 家中位:PE 237.1 / 股息率 0.1% / 毛利率 35.7% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 36%。", "星网宇达:PE 比行业中位高 8.4倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 15.9个百分点。"]}}