{"F": {"ts_code": "002828.SZ", "name": "贝肯能源", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "石油石化", "sw2": "油服工程", "sw3": "油田服务", "ind": "油服工程", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20161208", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.93, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.9748, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 239778.2068, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [22.6, 17.3, -2.5, 18.4, 22.1, 19.2], "rev_series": [9.4, 11.4, 6.7, 9.8, 9.5, 9.8], "np_series": [0.2, 0.2, -3.2, 0.4, 0.0, 0.2], "roe_series": [2.6, 2.2, -41.1, 7.3, 0.7, 3.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.3, "np_ttm": -1.2, "ocf_ttm": 2.0, "fcf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_yield": 4.6, "ocf_yield": 8.2, "gm_median": 18.4, "gm_std": 8.9, "gm_stab": 0.52, "gm_chg_2022": -25.2, "npm_median": 2.1, "roe_median": 2.2, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 24.4, "fix_assets": 3.1, "goodwill_ratio": 1.6, "pb_calc": 3.97, "capex_dep": 1.42, "interest_debt": 2.4, "debt_ebitda": 3.8, "debt_ratio": 52.6, "debt_mv": 10.2, "payout": 146.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 13.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -32.4, "np_yoy": -999.5, "np_vol": 699.6, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["钻井工程", 99.0], ["产品销售", 1.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 25.3, "ret_prev2_year": -17.3, "ret_ytd": 11.9, "ret_pivot": 63.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.0, "ret_60": 32.9, "ret_120": -14.0, "ret_250": 10.5, "mdd_250": -45.8, "vol_250": 55.5, "pos_52w": 72.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 70, "hard": 39, "bondness": 53}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 53%,有息负债 2 亿,经营现金流/市值 8.2%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 18.4%),硬资产占比 24%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.6%(经营现金流/市值 8.2%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.4%,稳定度 52%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -25.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 24%,资本开支/折旧 1.42 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 10%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 56%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 33% / -14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「油服工程」14 家中位:PE 62.0 / 股息率 1.3% / 毛利率 14.7% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 35%。", "贝肯能源:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点。"]}}