{"F": {"ts_code": "002827.SZ", "name": "高争民爆", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "民爆制品", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20161209", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 66.15, "pe_ttm": 113.6454, "pb": 17.1908, "dv_ttm": 0.3175, "total_mv": 1832659.29, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [35.5, 33.2, 28.2, 31.1, 30.4, 30.3], "rev_series": [7.6, 9.3, 11.3, 15.5, 16.9, 18.3], "np_series": [0.4, 0.5, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0], "roe_series": [4.8, 6.9, 6.9, 12.3, 17.0, 19.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 17.9, "np_ttm": 1.6, "ocf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_yield": 0.3, "ocf_yield": 0.6, "gm_median": 30.4, "gm_std": 1.6, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -7.3, "npm_median": 8.0, "roe_median": 12.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.7, "fix_assets": 6.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.4, "pb_calc": 17.19, "capex_dep": 0.71, "interest_debt": 12.0, "debt_ebitda": 3.7, "debt_ratio": 51.7, "debt_mv": 6.5, "payout": 29.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 17.2, "np_cagr3": 54.8, "rev_yoy": -5.2, "np_yoy": -53.1, "np_vol": 26.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["爆破服务", 39.0], ["粉状乳化炸药", 13.0], ["工业炸药", 13.0], ["工业雷管", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 50.7, "ret_prev2_year": 53.6, "ret_ytd": 76.0, "ret_pivot": 163.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 22.1, "ret_60": 160.5, "ret_120": 85.6, "ret_250": 51.2, "mdd_250": -47.7, "vol_250": 48.8, "pos_52w": 100.0}, "S": {"duration": 94, "pricing": 52, "hard": 32, "bondness": 26}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 113.6 倍,估值里约 96% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 20%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 30.4%),硬资产占比 20%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.3%(经营现金流/市值 0.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 30.4%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 20%,资本开支/折旧 0.71 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 113.6 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 51%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 100%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 22% / 160% / 86%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;已在高位,贴现率冲击时跌幅按 PE 放大。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "高争民爆:PE 比行业中位高 77.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 8.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 14.8个百分点。"]}}