{"F": {"ts_code": "002825.SZ", "name": "纳尔股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "塑料", "sw3": "其他塑料制品", "ind": "塑料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20161129", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.84, "pe_ttm": 46.935, "pb": 2.1394, "dv_ttm": 1.2094, "total_mv": 336469.6488, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.0, 17.7, 18.5, 17.3, 17.1, 19.7], "rev_series": [12.5, 17.6, 16.2, 14.9, 19.0, 19.8], "np_series": [1.0, 0.6, 3.5, 1.0, 1.3, 1.4], "roe_series": [12.7, 6.7, 28.9, 7.1, 8.5, 9.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 22.1, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_yield": -1.0, "ocf_yield": 4.1, "gm_median": 17.7, "gm_std": 1.0, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -5.5, "npm_median": 6.8, "roe_median": 8.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 23.1, "fix_assets": 6.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.4, "pb_calc": 2.14, "capex_dep": 2.38, "interest_debt": 4.3, "debt_ebitda": 2.9, "debt_ratio": 43.5, "debt_mv": 12.7, "payout": 40.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 7.0, "np_cagr3": -26.3, "rev_yoy": 23.1, "np_yoy": -60.4, "np_vol": 198.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["数码喷印材料", 58.0], ["汽车功能膜", 28.0], ["其他复合材料", 3.0], ["其他主营业务", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 50.0, "ret_prev2_year": -7.0, "ret_ytd": -13.5, "ret_pivot": 66.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 16.4, "ret_60": 7.7, "ret_120": -9.1, "ret_250": -5.0, "mdd_250": -42.4, "vol_250": 41.9, "pos_52w": 75.9}, "S": {"duration": 69, "pricing": 46, "hard": 37, "bondness": 43}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 46.9 倍、股息率 1.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 17.7%、固定资产占比 23%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 23%,毛利率近 5 年中位 17.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.0%(经营现金流/市值 4.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.7%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 23%,资本开支/折旧 2.38 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 46.9 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -5%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 76%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 16% / 8% / -9%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「塑料」77 家中位:PE 41.1 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 40%。", "纳尔股份:PE 比行业中位高 5.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.8个百分点。"]}}