{"F": {"ts_code": "002824.SZ", "name": "和胜股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "工业金属", "sw3": "铝", "ind": "工业金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170112", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 25.66, "pe_ttm": 39.9999, "pb": 3.4012, "dv_ttm": 0.6625, "total_mv": 798469.4048, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.0, 20.2, 19.1, 16.6, 12.8, 14.8], "rev_series": [14.8, 24.1, 30.0, 29.1, 33.3, 40.1], "np_series": [0.8, 2.1, 2.0, 1.4, 0.8, 1.5], "roe_series": [9.2, 21.1, 15.4, 8.7, 4.8, 7.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 47.5, "np_ttm": 2.0, "ocf_ttm": 2.9, "fcf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_yield": 0.8, "ocf_yield": 3.7, "gm_median": 16.6, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.84, "gm_chg_2022": 1.2, "npm_median": 4.9, "roe_median": 8.7, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 25.1, "fix_assets": 14.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 3.4, "capex_dep": 1.87, "interest_debt": 11.5, "debt_ebitda": 2.8, "debt_ratio": 59.0, "debt_mv": 14.3, "payout": 37.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 10.2, "np_cagr3": -8.9, "rev_yoy": 44.6, "np_yoy": 102.8, "np_vol": 82.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 87.0, "earn_yield": 2.5, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 31.3, "fwd_pe2": 24.9, "fwd_g1": 28.0, "fwd_g2": 26.0, "peg": 1.2, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["铝型材", 49.0], ["铝制品", 49.0], ["其他业务", 1.0], ["受托加工", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 25.2, "ret_prev2_year": -23.4, "ret_ytd": 33.4, "ret_pivot": 115.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 10.8, "ret_60": -11.1, "ret_120": 29.5, "ret_250": 34.9, "mdd_250": -52.5, "vol_250": 65.4, "pos_52w": 64.6}, "S": {"duration": 63, "pricing": 70, "hard": 40, "bondness": 35}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 103%,PE TTM 40.0 倍 但前瞻 PE 31.3 倍,PEG 1.20。", "自由现金流 0.6 亿(正),次年预期增速 26%(2 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 16.6%),硬资产占比 25%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.8%(经营现金流/市值 3.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.6%,稳定度 84%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 25%,资本开支/折旧 1.87 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 40.0 倍 粗算,约 87%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 35%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 65%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 11% / -11% / 30%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工业金属」60 家中位:PE 20.5 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 10.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "和胜股份:PE 比行业中位高 19.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.4个百分点。"]}}