{"F": {"ts_code": "002823.SZ", "name": "凯中精密", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电机Ⅱ", "sw3": "电机Ⅲ", "ind": "电机Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20161124", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.09, "pe_ttm": 19.0393, "pb": 2.0552, "dv_ttm": 3.2657, "total_mv": 428695.2747, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.2, 15.0, 14.2, 14.7, 17.7, 20.9], "rev_series": [19.2, 24.5, 26.6, 30.2, 30.5, 29.3], "np_series": [0.8, 0.1, 0.2, 0.8, 1.7, 2.3], "roe_series": [6.0, 0.9, 1.8, 5.3, 10.0, 11.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 30.5, "np_ttm": 2.3, "ocf_ttm": 5.3, "fcf_ttm": 3.3, "fcf_yield": 7.8, "ocf_yield": 12.3, "gm_median": 15.0, "gm_std": 2.5, "gm_stab": 0.83, "gm_chg_2022": -5.0, "npm_median": 2.5, "roe_median": 5.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 52.0, "fix_assets": 20.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.6, "pb_calc": 2.06, "capex_dep": 1.02, "interest_debt": 9.3, "debt_ebitda": 1.8, "debt_ratio": 46.6, "debt_mv": 21.8, "payout": 59.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 3.2, "np_cagr3": 111.1, "rev_yoy": 8.8, "np_yoy": -7.5, "np_vol": 97.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 74.0, "earn_yield": 5.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 43.0], ["换向器、排放管理及其他精密零组件", 22.0], ["连接器及集成组件", 14.0], ["新能源汽车零组件", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": 16.4, "ret_prev2_year": 15.4, "ret_ytd": -17.2, "ret_pivot": 17.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.0, "ret_60": -24.2, "ret_120": -18.6, "ret_250": -22.0, "mdd_250": -42.9, "vol_250": 39.6, "pos_52w": 62.8}, "S": {"duration": 38, "pricing": 40, "hard": 83, "bondness": 63}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["现金流红利"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 52%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 15.0%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.0 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 1.8 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 52%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 15.0%,稳定度 83%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.8%(经营现金流/市值 12.3%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.0%,稳定度 83%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 52%,资本开支/折旧 1.02 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 19.0 倍 粗算,约 74%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -22%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -24% / -19%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电机Ⅱ」28 家中位:PE 46.1 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 20.8% / 固定资产占比 20% / 分红率 38%。", "凯中精密:PE 比行业中位低 27.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 32.2个百分点。"]}}