{"F": {"ts_code": "002819.SZ", "name": "东方中科", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "仪器仪表", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20161111", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 21.5, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.6485, "dv_ttm": 0.111, "total_mv": 644161.715, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.1, 23.0, 19.5, 20.2, 21.1, 19.3], "rev_series": [11.3, 18.5, 30.2, 30.1, 29.6, 32.3], "np_series": [0.6, 1.7, 8.9, -0.9, -2.1, -1.5], "roe_series": [10.2, 7.8, 24.7, -2.7, -7.1, -5.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 32.2, "np_ttm": -1.4, "ocf_ttm": 1.6, "fcf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_yield": 2.3, "ocf_yield": 2.4, "gm_median": 20.2, "gm_std": 1.4, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": 0.4, "npm_median": -4.8, "roe_median": -2.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 2.6, "fix_assets": 1.1, "goodwill_ratio": 2.1, "pb_calc": 2.4, "capex_dep": 0.3, "interest_debt": 3.3, "debt_ebitda": 42.8, "debt_ratio": 33.1, "debt_mv": 5.1, "payout": null, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 2.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -0.8, "np_yoy": 13.1, "np_vol": 210.1, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": 195.5, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 45.0], ["通用测试业务", 31.0], ["政务集成业务", 6.0], ["政务行业系统集成业务", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 0.6, "ret_prev2_year": 6.3, "ret_ytd": -21.2, "ret_pivot": -13.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.5, "ret_60": 2.9, "ret_120": -20.4, "ret_250": -32.3, "mdd_250": -40.2, "vol_250": 36.8, "pos_52w": 68.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 50, "hard": 4, "bondness": 33}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 33%,有息负债 3 亿,经营现金流/市值 2.4%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 3%,毛利率近 5 年中位 20.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.3%(经营现金流/市值 2.4%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 20.2%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 3%,资本开支/折旧 0.30 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -32%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 37%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 3% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "东方中科:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 18.2个百分点。"]}}