{"F": {"ts_code": "002818.SZ", "name": "富森美", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "商贸零售", "sw2": "一般零售", "sw3": "商业物业经营", "ind": "一般零售", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20161109", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.03, "pe_ttm": 9.5871, "pb": 1.3803, "dv_ttm": 6.0743, "total_mv": 825550.1667, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [67.5, 70.1, 69.0, 70.2, 67.2, 63.0], "rev_series": [13.3, 15.4, 14.8, 15.2, 14.3, 12.0], "np_series": [7.7, 9.2, 7.8, 8.1, 6.9, 5.6], "roe_series": [14.7, 15.8, 13.1, 13.6, 11.8, 9.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.5, "np_ttm": 8.6, "ocf_ttm": 8.2, "fcf_ttm": 7.9, "fcf_yield": 9.6, "ocf_yield": 9.9, "gm_median": 69.0, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": 1.4, "npm_median": 54.2, "roe_median": 13.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 1.6, "fix_assets": 1.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.38, "capex_dep": 0.13, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 11.1, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 100.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -6.8, "np_cagr3": -10.8, "rev_yoy": -22.4, "np_yoy": 96.0, "np_vol": 14.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 48.0, "earn_yield": 10.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["租赁服务", 32.0], ["市场租赁及服务", 32.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -20.5, "ret_prev2_year": 35.5, "ret_ytd": 2.1, "ret_pivot": 13.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.8, "ret_60": 1.8, "ret_120": -4.7, "ret_250": -3.8, "mdd_250": -13.0, "vol_250": 23.5, "pos_52w": 92.5}, "S": {"duration": 21, "pricing": 77, "hard": 3, "bondness": 88}, "label": "轻资产现金牛", "tags": ["现金流红利", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["固定资产占比 2%,毛利率近 5 年中位 69.0%,自由现金流/市值 9.6%:现金机器,久期短。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 69.0%),硬资产占比 2%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "久期短、无杠杆,加息期相对安全;放水期跑不过科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 9.6%(经营现金流/市值 9.9%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 69.0%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.4 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 2%,资本开支/折旧 0.13 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 9.6 倍 粗算,约 48%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -4%,最大回撤 -13%,年化波动 24%,现价在 52 周高点的 92%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / 2% / -5%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「一般零售」60 家中位:PE 60.7 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 34.2% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 51%。", "富森美:PE 比行业中位低 51.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 5.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 34.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 13.8个百分点。"]}}