{"F": {"ts_code": "002812.SZ", "name": "恩捷股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电池", "sw3": "电池化学品", "ind": "电池", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20160914", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 48.27, "pe_ttm": 44.857, "pb": 1.8183, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 4736824.8822, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [42.6, 49.9, 47.8, 37.4, 11.1, 18.8], "rev_series": [42.8, 79.8, 125.9, 120.4, 101.6, 136.3], "np_series": [11.2, 27.2, 40.0, 25.3, -5.6, 1.4], "roe_series": [14.3, 21.8, 25.4, 11.3, -2.2, 0.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 165.4, "np_ttm": 10.6, "ocf_ttm": 20.9, "fcf_ttm": 5.5, "fcf_yield": 1.2, "ocf_yield": 4.4, "gm_median": 37.4, "gm_std": 15.5, "gm_stab": 0.58, "gm_chg_2022": 5.2, "npm_median": 22.0, "roe_median": 11.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 58.5, "fix_assets": 292.5, "goodwill_ratio": 1.0, "pb_calc": 1.82, "capex_dep": 0.67, "interest_debt": 148.8, "debt_ebitda": 3.3, "debt_ratio": 44.2, "debt_mv": 31.4, "payout": 65.2, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 2.7, "np_cagr3": -67.1, "rev_yoy": 50.5, "np_yoy": 981.0, "np_vol": 99.9, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.2, "consensus_n": 20, "fwd_pe": 20.9, "fwd_pe2": 11.9, "fwd_g1": 115.0, "fwd_g2": 75.0, "peg": 0.28, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["锂电池隔离膜", 43.0], ["无菌包装", 3.0], ["BOPP膜", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 77.1, "ret_prev2_year": -42.1, "ret_ytd": -14.8, "ret_pivot": 97.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -10.1, "ret_60": -21.4, "ret_120": -33.9, "ret_250": 49.7, "mdd_250": -45.4, "vol_250": 59.7, "pos_52w": 55.1}, "S": {"duration": 67, "pricing": 50, "hard": 94, "bondness": 50}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 981%,PE TTM 44.9 倍 但前瞻 PE 20.9 倍,PEG 0.28。", "自由现金流 5.5 亿(正),次年预期增速 75%(20 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 58%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 37.4%,稳定度 58%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.2%(经营现金流/市值 4.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 37.4%,稳定度 58%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 5.2 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 58%,资本开支/折旧 0.67 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 44.9 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 50%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 60%,现价在 52 周高点的 55%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / -21% / -34%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电池」111 家中位:PE 35.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 36%。", "恩捷股份:PE 比行业中位高 9.1倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 19.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 30.7个百分点。"]}}