{"F": {"ts_code": "002811.SZ", "name": "郑中设计", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑装饰", "sw2": "装修装饰Ⅱ", "sw3": "装修装饰Ⅲ", "ind": "装修装饰Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20160908", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.92, "pe_ttm": 27.4429, "pb": 3.0682, "dv_ttm": 2.2845, "total_mv": 459491.24, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.0, 22.5, 22.4, 21.3, 29.4, 33.4], "rev_series": [18.9, 19.0, 11.0, 10.9, 11.9, 13.8], "np_series": [0.3, 0.2, -1.7, -0.5, 1.0, 1.5], "roe_series": [1.7, 1.1, -12.9, -4.1, 8.4, 12.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 16.4, "np_ttm": 1.7, "ocf_ttm": 2.7, "fcf_ttm": 1.8, "fcf_yield": 3.8, "ocf_yield": 5.9, "gm_median": 22.5, "gm_std": 4.8, "gm_stab": 0.79, "gm_chg_2022": 1.4, "npm_median": 0.9, "roe_median": 1.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.3, "fix_assets": 2.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.07, "capex_dep": 5.43, "interest_debt": 2.3, "debt_ebitda": 1.7, "debt_ratio": 45.4, "debt_mv": 5.1, "payout": 88.6, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 8.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 41.7, "np_yoy": 14.4, "np_vol": 488.1, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 82.0, "earn_yield": 3.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["设计业务", 27.0], ["软装业务", 18.0], ["装饰工程施工业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 83.8, "ret_prev2_year": -9.9, "ret_ytd": 1.2, "ret_pivot": 138.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 45.3, "ret_60": 23.1, "ret_120": 0.3, "ret_250": 35.0, "mdd_250": -48.3, "vol_250": 49.0, "pos_52w": 84.5}, "S": {"duration": 50, "pricing": 47, "hard": 15, "bondness": 62}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 1.7 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 27 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 45%,有息负债 2 亿,经营现金流/市值 5.9%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 9%,毛利率近 5 年中位 22.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.8%(经营现金流/市值 5.9%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.5%,稳定度 79%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 5.43 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 27.4 倍 粗算,约 82%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 35%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 84%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 45% / 23% / 0%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「装修装饰Ⅱ」22 家中位:PE 49.6 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 12.9% / 固定资产占比 8% / 分红率 28%。", "郑中设计:PE 比行业中位低 22.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 9.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.0个百分点。"]}}