{"F": {"ts_code": "002810.SZ", "name": "山东赫达", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "其他化学制品", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20160826", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 21.54, "pe_ttm": 31.031, "pb": 3.2956, "dv_ttm": 1.3843, "total_mv": 749611.1986, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [36.8, 36.6, 34.2, 29.3, 27.0, 25.9], "rev_series": [13.1, 15.6, 17.2, 15.6, 19.6, 19.1], "np_series": [2.5, 3.3, 3.5, 2.2, 2.2, 1.4], "roe_series": [23.8, 24.0, 20.6, 11.1, 10.3, 6.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 21.6, "np_ttm": 2.4, "ocf_ttm": 6.1, "fcf_ttm": 5.4, "fcf_yield": 7.2, "ocf_yield": 8.2, "gm_median": 29.3, "gm_std": 4.1, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -2.6, "npm_median": 14.2, "roe_median": 11.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 45.5, "fix_assets": 19.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.19, "capex_dep": 0.3, "interest_debt": 11.3, "debt_ebitda": 1.7, "debt_ratio": 44.5, "debt_mv": 15.1, "payout": 31.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 3.5, "np_cagr3": -26.3, "rev_yoy": 26.0, "np_yoy": 88.3, "np_vol": 26.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 84.0, "earn_yield": 3.2, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 18.3, "fwd_pe2": 13.2, "fwd_g1": 70.0, "fwd_g2": 39.0, "peg": 0.47, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["自产纤维素醚产品", 33.0], ["纤维素醚", 33.0], ["植物空心胶囊产品", 15.0], ["植物空心胶囊", 15.0]], "ret_prev_year": 18.0, "ret_prev2_year": -39.6, "ret_ytd": 47.2, "ret_pivot": 102.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.4, "ret_60": -1.8, "ret_120": 13.5, "ret_250": 60.6, "mdd_250": -36.4, "vol_250": 51.1, "pos_52w": 74.6}, "S": {"duration": 54, "pricing": 50, "hard": 73, "bondness": 41}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 88%,PE TTM 31.0 倍 但前瞻 PE 18.3 倍,PEG 0.47。", "自由现金流 5.4 亿(正),次年预期增速 39%(4 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 46%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 29.3%,稳定度 86%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.2%(经营现金流/市值 8.2%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.3%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 46%,资本开支/折旧 0.30 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 31.0 倍 粗算,约 84%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 61%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 75%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / -2% / 14%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "山东赫达:PE 比行业中位低 4.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 11.0个百分点。"]}}