{"F": {"ts_code": "002809.SZ", "name": "红墙股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "其他化学制品", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20160823", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.72, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.1567, "dv_ttm": 1.1468, "total_mv": 209506.8944, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [31.9, 25.3, 27.9, 32.9, 29.2, 16.5], "rev_series": [13.4, 15.5, 9.4, 7.6, 6.8, 7.7], "np_series": [1.4, 1.1, 0.9, 0.9, 0.5, -0.4], "roe_series": [11.5, 8.2, 6.1, 5.4, 2.9, -2.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.1, "np_ttm": -0.6, "ocf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_ttm": 0.0, "fcf_yield": 0.1, "ocf_yield": 1.5, "gm_median": 27.9, "gm_std": 5.5, "gm_stab": 0.8, "gm_chg_2022": -4.0, "npm_median": 7.3, "roe_median": 5.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 35.1, "fix_assets": 8.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.16, "capex_dep": 0.49, "interest_debt": 2.7, "debt_ebitda": 16.9, "debt_ratio": 22.4, "debt_mv": 13.0, "payout": 83.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -6.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 13.0, "np_yoy": -300.8, "np_vol": 63.9, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["聚羧酸系外加剂", 24.0], ["聚羧酸系减水剂", 24.0], ["精细化工", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 40.6, "ret_prev2_year": -27.1, "ret_ytd": -17.7, "ret_pivot": 39.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 9.0, "ret_60": -2.1, "ret_120": -37.4, "ret_250": -29.0, "mdd_250": -54.9, "vol_250": 48.3, "pos_52w": 57.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 46, "hard": 56, "bondness": 71}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.6 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 22%,有息负债 3 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.5%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 35%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 27.9%,稳定度 80%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.1%(经营现金流/市值 1.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.9%,稳定度 80%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 35%,资本开支/折旧 0.49 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -29%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 57%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / -2% / -37%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "红墙股份:PE ;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点。"]}}