{"F": {"ts_code": "002805.SZ", "name": "丰元股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电池", "sw3": "电池化学品", "ind": "电池", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20160707", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.45, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 4.8759, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 488709.0625, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [8.8, 15.3, 18.3, -0.0, -15.1, -6.3], "rev_series": [3.6, 8.0, 17.4, 27.8, 14.9, 23.3], "np_series": [-0.3, 0.5, 1.5, -3.9, -3.6, -4.9], "roe_series": [-5.2, 6.7, 8.6, -17.2, -19.2, -37.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 48.8, "np_ttm": -1.0, "ocf_ttm": -2.4, "fcf_ttm": -3.9, "fcf_yield": -7.9, "ocf_yield": -4.9, "gm_median": -0.0, "gm_std": 12.7, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": 9.5, "npm_median": -15.6, "roe_median": -17.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 41.8, "fix_assets": 28.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.88, "capex_dep": 0.52, "interest_debt": 26.3, "debt_ebitda": 6.2, "debt_ratio": 74.5, "debt_mv": 53.7, "payout": null, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 10.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 353.0, "np_yoy": 160.0, "np_vol": 219.7, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["锂电池正极材料", 49.0], ["草酸类", 1.0], ["草酸", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 49.0, "ret_prev2_year": -25.5, "ret_ytd": -1.6, "ret_pivot": 74.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.4, "ret_60": -14.4, "ret_120": -3.1, "ret_250": 30.3, "mdd_250": -45.9, "vol_250": 60.2, "pos_52w": 58.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 36, "hard": 67, "bondness": 25}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 42%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 -0.0%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 9.5 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 6.2 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 42%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 -0.0%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -7.9%(经营现金流/市值 -4.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 -0.0%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 9.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 42%,资本开支/折旧 0.52 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 30%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 60%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / -14% / -3%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电池」111 家中位:PE 35.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 36%。", "丰元股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 17.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 14.0个百分点。"]}}