{"F": {"ts_code": "002803.SZ", "name": "吉宏股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "商贸零售", "sw2": "互联网电商", "sw3": "跨境电商", "ind": "互联网电商", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20160712", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 20.81, "pe_ttm": 30.1146, "pb": 3.4353, "dv_ttm": 1.6884, "total_mv": 952924.8608, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [43.1, 38.4, 40.7, 46.7, 43.9, 46.9], "rev_series": [44.1, 51.8, 53.8, 66.9, 55.3, 67.2], "np_series": [5.6, 2.3, 1.8, 3.5, 1.8, 2.8], "roe_series": [35.5, 12.6, 9.3, 15.8, 8.1, 11.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 72.2, "np_ttm": 3.2, "ocf_ttm": 3.8, "fcf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_yield": 1.2, "ocf_yield": 4.0, "gm_median": 43.9, "gm_std": 3.3, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -2.4, "npm_median": 4.0, "roe_median": 11.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 20.5, "fix_assets": 10.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 3.44, "capex_dep": 2.63, "interest_debt": 9.1, "debt_ebitda": 1.7, "debt_ratio": 41.8, "debt_mv": 9.6, "payout": 69.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 7.7, "np_cagr3": 14.6, "rev_yoy": 15.5, "np_yoy": 33.5, "np_vol": 57.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 83.0, "earn_yield": 3.3, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 26.2, "fwd_pe2": 20.6, "fwd_g1": 15.0, "fwd_g2": 27.0, "peg": 0.97, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["电商业务", 40.0], ["电商", 40.0], ["包装-纸盒纸箱", 11.0], ["包装-食品包装", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 33.0, "ret_prev2_year": -37.6, "ret_ytd": 28.6, "ret_pivot": 98.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.8, "ret_60": -0.4, "ret_120": 15.0, "ret_250": 17.7, "mdd_250": -36.1, "vol_250": 49.7, "pos_52w": 76.3}, "S": {"duration": 53, "pricing": 60, "hard": 33, "bondness": 52}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 34%,PE TTM 30.1 倍 但前瞻 PE 26.2 倍,PEG 0.97。", "自由现金流 1.1 亿(正),次年预期增速 27%(6 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 43.9%),硬资产占比 20%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.2%(经营现金流/市值 4.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 43.9%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 20%,资本开支/折旧 2.63 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 30.1 倍 粗算,约 83%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 18%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 50%,现价在 52 周高点的 76%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / -0% / 15%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「互联网电商」19 家中位:PE 32.2 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 31.4% / 固定资产占比 10% / 分红率 74%。", "吉宏股份:PE 比行业中位低 2.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 12.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 10.8个百分点。"]}}