{"F": {"ts_code": "002797.SZ", "name": "第一创业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "非银金融", "sw2": "证券Ⅱ", "sw3": "证券Ⅲ", "ind": "证券Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20160511", "is_fin": true, "roles": {"fin": true, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.56, "pe_ttm": 26.4128, "pb": 1.5945, "dv_ttm": 1.25, "total_mv": 2756774.4, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [null, null, null, null, null, null], "rev_series": [31.2, 32.5, 26.1, 24.9, 35.3, 36.9], "np_series": [8.1, 7.5, 4.0, 3.3, 9.0, 8.4], "roe_series": [7.1, 5.3, 2.8, 2.2, 5.8, 5.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 40.2, "np_ttm": 10.4, "ocf_ttm": 37.6, "fcf_ttm": 35.4, "fcf_yield": 12.9, "ocf_yield": 13.6, "gm_median": null, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 24.6, "roe_median": 5.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 1.1, "fix_assets": 7.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.59, "capex_dep": 4.64, "interest_debt": 106.1, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 73.6, "debt_mv": 38.5, "payout": 40.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 12.2, "np_cagr3": 28.0, "rev_yoy": 18.5, "np_yoy": 41.7, "np_vol": 78.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 81.0, "earn_yield": 3.8, "consensus_n": 7, "fwd_pe": 27.5, "fwd_pe2": 25.2, "fwd_g1": -4.0, "fwd_g2": 9.0, "peg": 3.06, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 20.0], ["手续费及佣金净收入：手续费及佣金收入", 11.0], ["手续费及佣金净收入", 9.0], ["投资收益(损失以“-”号填列)", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": -17.1, "ret_prev2_year": 45.9, "ret_ytd": -3.5, "ret_pivot": 28.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.0, "ret_60": 7.9, "ret_120": -12.2, "ret_250": -18.1, "mdd_250": -26.3, "vol_250": 29.5, "pos_52w": 79.5}, "S": {"duration": 48, "pricing": null, "hard": null, "bondness": 32}, "label": "金融·利差生意", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["第一创业 是证券Ⅱ。银行赚的是利差,券商保险赚的是资产端与费率,毛利率与固定资产两个轴对它没有意义。", "ROE 近 5 年中位 5.0%,PB 1.59倍,股息率 1.2%,分红率 40%。", "利率上行对银行是净息差扩张(少数受益方向);对保险是资产端浮亏、对券商是交投与融资成本。"], "加息期怎么走": "按笔记:日债/美债收益率上行期,银行股是例外的受益方向;红利型大行按'现金流红利'拿,盯息差而不盯黄金。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "金融业现金流表不适用;用盈利收益率 3.8%(1/PE)与股息率 1.2% 看。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 26.4 倍 粗算,约 81%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -18%,最大回撤 -26%,年化波动 30%,现价在 52 周高点的 80%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / 8% / -12%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「证券Ⅱ」50 家中位:PE 15.7 / 股息率 1.9% / 毛利率 10.2% / 固定资产占比 0% / 分红率 33%。", "第一创业:PE 比行业中位高 10.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 ;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点。"]}}