{"F": {"ts_code": "002795.SZ", "name": "永和智控", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "金属制品", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20160428", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.33, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 7.3489, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 323756.8642, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [31.6, 28.3, 28.2, 14.3, 13.6, 15.6], "rev_series": [6.5, 10.1, 9.9, 9.5, 8.2, 6.9], "np_series": [0.1, 0.2, -0.3, -1.6, -3.0, -1.4], "roe_series": [2.1, 2.7, -3.4, -19.6, -45.3, -31.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.2, "np_ttm": -0.4, "ocf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_yield": -0.6, "ocf_yield": 1.0, "gm_median": 15.6, "gm_std": 6.8, "gm_stab": 0.57, "gm_chg_2022": -3.4, "npm_median": -20.2, "roe_median": -19.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 41.3, "fix_assets": 4.0, "goodwill_ratio": 1.4, "pb_calc": 7.35, "capex_dep": 1.18, "interest_debt": 3.2, "debt_ebitda": 5.3, "debt_ratio": 53.0, "debt_mv": 9.8, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -11.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -17.7, "np_yoy": 268.5, "np_vol": 205.4, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["阀门管件类", 47.0], ["医疗服务及其他", 2.0], ["医疗服务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 54.4, "ret_prev2_year": -45.4, "ret_ytd": 16.3, "ret_pivot": 116.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 9.2, "ret_60": -2.9, "ret_120": -4.3, "ret_250": 44.0, "mdd_250": -50.5, "vol_250": 56.9, "pos_52w": 71.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 33, "hard": 66, "bondness": 35}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 41%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 15.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.4 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 5.3 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 41%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 15.6%,稳定度 57%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.6%(经营现金流/市值 1.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.6%,稳定度 57%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 41%,资本开支/折旧 1.18 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 44%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 57%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / -3% / -4%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "永和智控:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 12.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 20.5个百分点。"]}}