{"F": {"ts_code": "002792.SZ", "name": "通宇通讯", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "通信", "sw2": "通信设备", "sw3": "通信网络设备及器件", "ind": "通信设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20160328", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 30.44, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 5.6881, "dv_ttm": 0.0821, "total_mv": 1594556.784, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.3, 21.4, 20.4, 20.8, 22.2, 20.2], "rev_series": [15.1, 13.9, 14.1, 12.9, 11.9, 11.1], "np_series": [0.7, 0.4, 0.8, 0.8, 0.4, 0.4], "roe_series": [3.6, 1.7, 3.0, 2.9, 1.5, 1.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 11.6, "np_ttm": -0.0, "ocf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_yield": -0.1, "ocf_yield": 0.0, "gm_median": 20.8, "gm_std": 0.7, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -3.0, "npm_median": 3.7, "roe_median": 1.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 7.0, "fix_assets": 2.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.69, "capex_dep": 0.55, "interest_debt": 0.3, "debt_ebitda": 1.2, "debt_ratio": 20.1, "debt_mv": 0.2, "payout": 31.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -7.6, "np_cagr3": -20.4, "rev_yoy": 9.3, "np_yoy": -202.5, "np_vol": 52.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 289.9, "fwd_pe2": 202.9, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 43.0, "peg": 6.74, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 47.0], ["基站天线", 24.0], ["微波天线", 12.0], ["射频器件", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 187.8, "ret_prev2_year": 16.9, "ret_ytd": -28.7, "ret_pivot": 182.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -18.2, "ret_60": -19.7, "ret_120": -24.4, "ret_250": 62.1, "mdd_250": -67.8, "vol_250": 77.8, "pos_52w": 43.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 49, "hard": 11, "bondness": 35}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 为负(亏损),估值里约 100% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 7%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(2 篇研报)前瞻 PE 289.9 倍,次年 202.9 倍,PEG 6.74。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 7%,毛利率近 5 年中位 20.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.1%(经营现金流/市值 0.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 20.8%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 7%,资本开支/折旧 0.55 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 62%,最大回撤 -68%,年化波动 78%,现价在 52 周高点的 44%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -18% / -20% / -24%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通信设备」89 家中位:PE 84.6 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 29.1% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 41%。", "通宇通讯:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.2个百分点。"]}}