{"F": {"ts_code": "002790.SZ", "name": "瑞尔特", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "家居用品", "sw3": "卫浴制品", "ind": "家居用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20160308", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.45, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.3156, "dv_ttm": 0.2326, "total_mv": 269527.6335, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.2, 22.6, 24.8, 29.5, 27.3, 24.2], "rev_series": [12.8, 18.7, 19.6, 21.8, 23.6, 18.0], "np_series": [1.1, 1.4, 2.1, 2.2, 1.8, 0.2], "roe_series": [6.9, 8.1, 11.4, 10.9, 8.6, 0.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 16.4, "np_ttm": -0.4, "ocf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_ttm": -0.8, "fcf_yield": -3.0, "ocf_yield": 5.7, "gm_median": 24.8, "gm_std": 2.5, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": 0.6, "npm_median": 7.6, "roe_median": 8.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 26.4, "fix_assets": 6.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.32, "capex_dep": 2.54, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 16.7, "debt_mv": 0.2, "payout": 47.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -2.8, "np_cagr3": -55.7, "rev_yoy": -17.5, "np_yoy": -120.5, "np_vol": 47.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 37.0], ["智能座便器及盖板", 19.0], ["智能坐便器及盖板", 19.0], ["水箱及配件", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 18.2, "ret_prev2_year": -28.7, "ret_ytd": -23.0, "ret_pivot": 4.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 13.4, "ret_60": 7.4, "ret_120": -20.1, "ret_250": -16.3, "mdd_250": -56.7, "vol_250": 39.2, "pos_52w": 53.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 52, "hard": 42, "bondness": 38}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 0 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 17%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 5.7%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 26%,毛利率近 5 年中位 24.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.0%(经营现金流/市值 5.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.8%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 26%,资本开支/折旧 2.54 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -16%,最大回撤 -57%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 13% / 7% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「家居用品」77 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 28.3% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "瑞尔特:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 1.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.2个百分点。"]}}