{"F": {"ts_code": "002787.SZ", "name": "华源控股", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "包装印刷", "sw3": "金属包装", "ind": "包装印刷", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20151231", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 23.43, "pe_ttm": 55.6063, "pb": 4.2735, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 778810.1541, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.8, 15.0, 12.9, 14.4, 15.4, 17.6], "rev_series": [17.8, 23.5, 22.6, 24.1, 24.5, 23.1], "np_series": [0.5, 0.2, 0.1, 0.1, 0.7, 1.1], "roe_series": [3.0, 1.1, 0.7, 0.5, 4.1, 6.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 23.4, "np_ttm": 1.4, "ocf_ttm": 1.3, "fcf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_yield": 0.7, "ocf_yield": 1.7, "gm_median": 15.0, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -5.8, "npm_median": 0.8, "roe_median": 1.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 26.5, "fix_assets": 7.9, "goodwill_ratio": 1.2, "pb_calc": 4.27, "capex_dep": 0.78, "interest_debt": 6.4, "debt_ebitda": 2.1, "debt_ratio": 37.8, "debt_mv": 8.2, "payout": 45.5, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 0.7, "np_cagr3": 118.9, "rev_yoy": 2.4, "np_yoy": 54.8, "np_vol": 304.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.8, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 45.7, "fwd_pe2": 35.4, "fwd_g1": 22.0, "fwd_g2": 29.0, "peg": 1.58, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["化工罐", 51.0], ["食品包装", 19.0], ["注塑产品", 13.0], ["吹塑产品", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 60.0, "ret_prev2_year": -14.2, "ret_ytd": 88.2, "ret_pivot": 273.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.0, "ret_60": -10.2, "ret_120": 83.6, "ret_250": 167.2, "mdd_250": -46.9, "vol_250": 66.9, "pos_52w": 69.3}, "S": {"duration": 75, "pricing": 43, "hard": 42, "bondness": 42}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 55.6 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 15.0%、固定资产占比 26%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 26%,毛利率近 5 年中位 15.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.7%(经营现金流/市值 1.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.0%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 26%,资本开支/折旧 0.78 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 55.6 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 167%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 67%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / -10% / 84%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「包装印刷」46 家中位:PE 38.9 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 33% / 分红率 50%。", "华源控股:PE 比行业中位高 16.7倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.3个百分点。"]}}