{"F": {"ts_code": "002786.SZ", "name": "银宝山新", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "其他专用设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20151223", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.93, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 17.6834, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 393020.3953, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [11.5, 5.7, 9.8, 9.0, 10.4, 14.4], "rev_series": [32.4, 26.7, 26.0, 23.2, 22.2, 23.0], "np_series": [-3.3, -5.8, -2.6, 2.4, -2.7, -0.6], "roe_series": [-44.6, -109.2, -69.5, 66.6, -74.9, -30.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 23.2, "np_ttm": -0.0, "ocf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_yield": 0.5, "ocf_yield": 1.7, "gm_median": 9.8, "gm_std": 2.8, "gm_stab": 0.71, "gm_chg_2022": -1.7, "npm_median": -10.4, "roe_median": -69.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 29.9, "fix_assets": 10.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 17.68, "capex_dep": 0.64, "interest_debt": 7.1, "debt_ebitda": 4.0, "debt_ratio": 95.1, "debt_mv": 18.1, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -3.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 1.7, "np_yoy": 226.5, "np_vol": 139.8, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["五金产品", 12.0], ["五金", 12.0], ["注塑", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": -7.0, "ret_prev2_year": -42.4, "ret_ytd": -7.8, "ret_pivot": -21.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.3, "ret_60": -4.7, "ret_120": 1.0, "ret_250": -20.6, "mdd_250": -37.1, "vol_250": 35.6, "pos_52w": 72.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 36, "hard": 48, "bondness": 32}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.0 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 95%,有息负债 7 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.7%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 30%,毛利率近 5 年中位 9.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.5%(经营现金流/市值 1.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 9.8%,稳定度 71%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 0.64 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -21%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 36%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / -5% / 1%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "银宝山新:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 16.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 11.9个百分点。"]}}