{"F": {"ts_code": "002783.SZ", "name": "凯龙股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "民爆制品", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20151209", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.05, "pe_ttm": 35.7094, "pb": 1.4981, "dv_ttm": 1.2422, "total_mv": 401950.5875, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.6, 22.9, 23.9, 27.3, 29.3, 30.3], "rev_series": [20.1, 27.4, 34.1, 37.8, 36.9, 35.4], "np_series": [0.5, -4.1, 1.3, 1.8, 1.5, 1.4], "roe_series": [2.9, -27.1, 9.8, 11.7, 7.2, 5.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 35.2, "np_ttm": 1.1, "ocf_ttm": 2.0, "fcf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_yield": 2.4, "ocf_yield": 4.9, "gm_median": 27.3, "gm_std": 2.9, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -3.7, "npm_median": 6.5, "roe_median": 7.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 39.3, "fix_assets": 33.0, "goodwill_ratio": 3.1, "pb_calc": 1.5, "capex_dep": 0.32, "interest_debt": 24.3, "debt_ebitda": 3.3, "debt_ratio": 54.6, "debt_mv": 60.4, "payout": 31.2, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 1.3, "np_cagr3": 2.2, "rev_yoy": -1.6, "np_yoy": -27.9, "np_vol": 381.7, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 86.0, "earn_yield": 2.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 42.0], ["爆破服务", 12.0], ["工业炸药", 10.0], ["复混（合）肥料", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 19.1, "ret_prev2_year": -29.6, "ret_ytd": -15.0, "ret_pivot": 16.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.9, "ret_60": 11.2, "ret_120": -20.2, "ret_250": -21.1, "mdd_250": -38.3, "vol_250": 34.3, "pos_52w": 73.6}, "S": {"duration": 59, "pricing": 50, "hard": 63, "bondness": 47}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 35.7 倍、股息率 1.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 27.3%、固定资产占比 39%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 39%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 27.3%,稳定度 89%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.4%(经营现金流/市值 4.9%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.3%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 39%,资本开支/折旧 0.32 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 35.7 倍 粗算,约 86%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -21%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 74%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 11% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "凯龙股份:PE 比行业中位低 0.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.8个百分点。"]}}