{"F": {"ts_code": "002782.SZ", "name": "可立克", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "其他电子Ⅱ", "sw3": "其他电子Ⅲ", "ind": "其他电子Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20151222", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.24, "pe_ttm": 34.1829, "pb": 3.4407, "dv_ttm": 1.3148, "total_mv": 754450.104, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.1, 19.0, 16.7, 13.2, 14.0, 12.9], "rev_series": [12.8, 16.5, 32.7, 46.7, 46.9, 55.3], "np_series": [2.1, 0.3, 1.1, 1.1, 2.3, 3.0], "roe_series": [18.1, 1.8, 7.3, 6.7, 12.1, 14.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 56.7, "np_ttm": 2.2, "ocf_ttm": 4.9, "fcf_ttm": 2.6, "fcf_yield": 3.4, "ocf_yield": 6.5, "gm_median": 14.0, "gm_std": 2.3, "gm_stab": 0.83, "gm_chg_2022": -7.4, "npm_median": 3.6, "roe_median": 7.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.7, "fix_assets": 5.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.9, "pb_calc": 3.44, "capex_dep": 2.98, "interest_debt": 0.7, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 56.9, "debt_mv": 0.9, "payout": 32.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 19.2, "np_cagr3": 39.1, "rev_yoy": 5.3, "np_yoy": -52.4, "np_vol": 138.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 85.0, "earn_yield": 2.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["磁性元件", 84.0], ["开关电源", 16.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 46.0, "ret_prev2_year": -9.7, "ret_ytd": -15.1, "ret_pivot": 55.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.2, "ret_60": -32.3, "ret_120": -39.1, "ret_250": -7.6, "mdd_250": -56.5, "vol_250": 60.7, "pos_52w": 50.2}, "S": {"duration": 57, "pricing": 40, "hard": 16, "bondness": 21}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 34.2 倍、股息率 1.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 14.0%、固定资产占比 10%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 10%,毛利率近 5 年中位 14.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.4%(经营现金流/市值 6.5%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.0%,稳定度 83%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 2.98 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 34.2 倍 粗算,约 85%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -8%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 61%,现价在 52 周高点的 50%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / -32% / -39%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「其他电子Ⅱ」34 家中位:PE 51.5 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 23.1% / 固定资产占比 13% / 分红率 35%。", "可立克:PE 比行业中位低 17.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 9.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.0个百分点。"]}}