{"F": {"ts_code": "002780.SZ", "name": "三夫户外", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "纺织服饰", "sw2": "服装家纺", "sw3": "运动服装", "ind": "服装家纺", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20151209", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.21, "pe_ttm": 26.1854, "pb": 2.8197, "dv_ttm": 0.3519, "total_mv": 234978.9757, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [43.4, 50.3, 52.7, 53.6, 56.7, 59.2], "rev_series": [4.7, 5.6, 5.6, 8.5, 8.0, 9.6], "np_series": [-0.7, -0.3, -0.3, 0.4, -0.2, 0.5], "roe_series": [-11.7, -4.3, -5.0, 5.5, -3.2, 7.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 11.0, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_yield": 3.9, "ocf_yield": 4.7, "gm_median": 53.6, "gm_std": 3.1, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": 9.2, "npm_median": -4.5, "roe_median": -3.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.5, "fix_assets": 1.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.82, "capex_dep": 2.77, "interest_debt": 3.1, "debt_ebitda": 1.8, "debt_ratio": 37.7, "debt_mv": 13.0, "payout": 14.7, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 19.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 39.4, "np_yoy": 216.3, "np_vol": 177.6, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 81.0, "earn_yield": 3.8, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 23.4, "fwd_pe2": 16.8, "fwd_g1": 12.0, "fwd_g2": 40.0, "peg": 0.58, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 45.0], ["服装类", 28.0], ["鞋袜类", 11.0], ["鞋袜", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 13.6, "ret_prev2_year": 1.1, "ret_ytd": -0.7, "ret_pivot": 60.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.6, "ret_60": 8.2, "ret_120": -8.2, "ret_250": 0.1, "mdd_250": -39.5, "vol_250": 45.0, "pos_52w": 74.2}, "S": {"duration": 48, "pricing": 71, "hard": 14, "bondness": 13}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 216%,PE TTM 26.2 倍 但前瞻 PE 23.4 倍,PEG 0.58。", "自由现金流 0.9 亿(正),次年预期增速 40%(6 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 53.6%),硬资产占比 8%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.9%(经营现金流/市值 4.7%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 53.6%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 9.2 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 2.77 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 26.2 倍 粗算,约 81%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 0%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 45%,现价在 52 周高点的 74%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / 8% / -8%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「服装家纺」60 家中位:PE 37.6 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 41.5% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 66%。", "三夫户外:PE 比行业中位低 11.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 2.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 12.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.6个百分点。"]}}