{"F": {"ts_code": "002778.SZ", "name": "中晟高科", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "环保", "sw2": "环境治理", "sw3": "水务及水治理", "ind": "环境治理", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20160106", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.7, "pe_ttm": 128.5322, "pb": 6.5921, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 208338.011, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.6, 25.3, 14.9, 10.2, 10.0, 24.5], "rev_series": [9.8, 10.3, 7.2, 6.2, 4.9, 1.9], "np_series": [0.7, 0.9, -0.4, -1.5, -1.7, 0.7], "roe_series": [13.2, 16.2, -6.2, -30.9, -50.4, 25.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2.3, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_yield": 0.6, "ocf_yield": 4.6, "gm_median": 14.9, "gm_std": 6.7, "gm_stab": 0.55, "gm_chg_2022": -6.7, "npm_median": -3.7, "roe_median": -6.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 18.7, "fix_assets": 1.1, "goodwill_ratio": 3.6, "pb_calc": 6.59, "capex_dep": 33.14, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 29.6, "debt_mv": 0.4, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -35.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 52.5, "np_yoy": -122.4, "np_vol": 162.8, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["污水处理设施委托运营业务", 37.0], ["环境工程业务", 11.0], ["环境咨询服务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 21.1, "ret_prev2_year": 16.2, "ret_ytd": -21.0, "ret_pivot": 75.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 10.8, "ret_60": -1.0, "ret_120": -20.4, "ret_250": -11.8, "mdd_250": -44.2, "vol_250": 41.4, "pos_52w": 69.3}, "S": {"duration": 96, "pricing": 30, "hard": 30, "bondness": 21}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 129 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 30%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 4.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 19%,毛利率近 5 年中位 14.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.6%(经营现金流/市值 4.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.9%,稳定度 55%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 33.14 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 128.5 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -12%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 11% / -1% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「环境治理」107 家中位:PE 26.1 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 27.6% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 38%。", "中晟高科:PE 比行业中位高 102.4倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 12.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.8个百分点。"]}}