{"F": {"ts_code": "002777.SZ", "name": "久远银海", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "IT服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "IT服务Ⅲ", "ind": "IT服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20151231", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.94, "pe_ttm": 71.6332, "pb": 3.1552, "dv_ttm": 0.7728, "total_mv": 528250.914, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [53.2, 56.1, 55.2, 47.6, 41.4, 47.8], "rev_series": [11.5, 13.1, 12.8, 13.5, 13.4, 12.3], "np_series": [1.9, 2.2, 1.8, 1.7, 0.7, 0.8], "roe_series": [15.6, 16.4, 12.4, 10.5, 4.4, 4.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 12.3, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": 1.9, "fcf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_yield": 2.8, "ocf_yield": 3.6, "gm_median": 47.8, "gm_std": 5.5, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": 2.0, "npm_median": 13.3, "roe_median": 10.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 4.0, "fix_assets": 1.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.16, "capex_dep": 3.77, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 28.9, "debt_mv": 0.3, "payout": 52.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -1.3, "np_cagr3": -25.3, "rev_yoy": -0.6, "np_yoy": -10.4, "np_vol": 24.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.4, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 44.6, "fwd_pe2": 32.8, "fwd_g1": 61.0, "fwd_g2": 36.0, "peg": 1.24, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 40.0], ["运维服务", 19.0], ["软件开发", 17.0], ["软件", 17.0]], "ret_prev_year": 5.1, "ret_prev2_year": -31.4, "ret_ytd": -27.5, "ret_pivot": -4.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.7, "ret_60": -1.4, "ret_120": -28.9, "ret_250": -37.8, "mdd_250": -48.5, "vol_250": 34.9, "pos_52w": 56.5}, "S": {"duration": 83, "pricing": 64, "hard": 6, "bondness": 43}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 71.6 倍,估值里约 93% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 4%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(2 篇研报)前瞻 PE 44.6 倍,次年 32.8 倍,PEG 1.24。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 47.8%),硬资产占比 4%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.8%(经营现金流/市值 3.6%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 47.8%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.0 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 4%,资本开支/折旧 3.77 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 71.6 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -38%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 35%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -1% / -29%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「IT服务Ⅱ」134 家中位:PE 84.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 28.1% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 35%。", "久远银海:PE 比行业中位低 12.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 19.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.6个百分点。"]}}