{"F": {"ts_code": "002774.SZ", "name": "快意电梯", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "楼宇设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170324", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.49, "pe_ttm": 94.4316, "pb": 4.605, "dv_ttm": 1.9367, "total_mv": 521529.5571, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.4, 41.3, 25.1, 27.8, 24.9, 22.8], "rev_series": [9.4, 19.8, 14.7, 16.6, 15.8, 14.6], "np_series": [0.3, 2.8, 0.8, 1.4, 1.3, 0.7], "roe_series": [2.9, 22.9, 5.9, 11.7, 10.5, 5.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 14.4, "np_ttm": 0.6, "ocf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 0.8, "ocf_yield": 1.8, "gm_median": 25.1, "gm_std": 6.6, "gm_stab": 0.74, "gm_chg_2022": -0.4, "npm_median": 8.4, "roe_median": 10.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 21.1, "fix_assets": 4.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.61, "capex_dep": 2.02, "interest_debt": 0.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.6, "debt_ratio": 42.1, "debt_mv": 1.0, "payout": 93.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -0.3, "np_cagr3": -1.7, "rev_yoy": -2.5, "np_yoy": -48.3, "np_vol": 327.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["直梯", 37.0], ["安装维保及备件", 10.0], ["扶梯", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 43.2, "ret_prev2_year": -13.4, "ret_ytd": 72.5, "ret_pivot": 224.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.7, "ret_60": 43.7, "ret_120": 44.8, "ret_250": 38.7, "mdd_250": -34.3, "vol_250": 59.4, "pos_52w": 87.8}, "S": {"duration": 91, "pricing": 46, "hard": 34, "bondness": 66}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 94.4 倍、股息率 1.9%、毛利率近 5 年中位 25.1%、固定资产占比 21%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.6 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 21%,毛利率近 5 年中位 25.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.8%(经营现金流/市值 1.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.1%,稳定度 74%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 21%,资本开支/折旧 2.02 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 94.4 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 39%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 59%,现价在 52 周高点的 88%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / 44% / 45%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "快意电梯:PE 比行业中位高 52.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.1个百分点。"]}}