{"F": {"ts_code": "002773.SZ", "name": "康弘药业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "生物制品", "sw3": "其他生物制品", "ind": "生物制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150626", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 20.3, "pe_ttm": 18.7401, "pb": 2.0296, "dv_ttm": 3.4483, "total_mv": 1870292.389, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [90.0, 90.2, 88.6, 88.9, 89.5, 89.8], "rev_series": [33.0, 36.1, 33.9, 39.6, 44.5, 45.9], "np_series": [-2.7, 4.2, 9.0, 10.4, 11.9, 11.6], "roe_series": [-5.2, 7.1, 13.8, 14.2, 14.5, 13.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 43.1, "np_ttm": 10.0, "ocf_ttm": 11.3, "fcf_ttm": 7.9, "fcf_yield": 4.3, "ocf_yield": 6.0, "gm_median": 89.5, "gm_std": 0.6, "gm_stab": 0.99, "gm_chg_2022": -1.4, "npm_median": 25.5, "roe_median": 13.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 21.9, "fix_assets": 21.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.03, "capex_dep": 1.62, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 7.6, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 46.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 10.6, "np_cagr3": 9.1, "rev_yoy": -11.2, "np_yoy": -22.6, "np_vol": 97.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 73.0, "earn_yield": 5.3, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 16.5, "fwd_pe2": 15.0, "fwd_g1": 14.0, "fwd_g2": 10.0, "peg": 1.65, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["生物药", 25.0], ["中成药", 17.0], ["化学药", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 59.9, "ret_prev2_year": 9.2, "ret_ytd": -30.6, "ret_pivot": 31.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -10.8, "ret_60": 2.0, "ret_120": -24.2, "ret_250": -51.6, "mdd_250": -53.0, "vol_250": 37.9, "pos_52w": 48.9}, "S": {"duration": 37, "pricing": 86, "hard": 35, "bondness": 46}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 46%、股息率 3.4%、营收 3 年复合 10.6%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 89.5%),硬资产占比 22%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.3%(经营现金流/市值 6.0%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 89.5%,稳定度 99%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 22%,资本开支/折旧 1.62 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 18.7 倍 粗算,约 73%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -52%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 38%,现价在 52 周高点的 49%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -11% / 2% / -24%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「生物制品」55 家中位:PE 32.1 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 75.7% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 40%。", "康弘药业:PE 比行业中位低 13.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 13.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点。"]}}