{"F": {"ts_code": "002772.SZ", "name": "众兴菌业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "种植业", "sw3": "食用菌", "ind": "种植业", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150626", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.6, "pe_ttm": 9.5164, "pb": 1.2205, "dv_ttm": 3.8793, "total_mv": 434701.3, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.6, 18.5, 25.5, 23.0, 20.8, 28.6], "rev_series": [14.8, 15.6, 19.7, 19.3, 19.4, 21.0], "np_series": [1.9, 0.5, 1.6, 1.6, 1.3, 3.3], "roe_series": [7.1, 1.8, 4.8, 4.7, 3.8, 9.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 22.8, "np_ttm": 4.6, "ocf_ttm": 5.2, "fcf_ttm": -1.5, "fcf_yield": -3.4, "ocf_yield": 11.9, "gm_median": 23.0, "gm_std": 3.5, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": -2.1, "npm_median": 8.1, "roe_median": 4.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 39.6, "fix_assets": 30.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.22, "capex_dep": 2.03, "interest_debt": 35.7, "debt_ebitda": 4.2, "debt_ratio": 54.0, "debt_mv": 82.0, "payout": 76.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 2.1, "np_cagr3": 28.4, "rev_yoy": 19.6, "np_yoy": 176.5, "np_vol": 103.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 47.0, "earn_yield": 10.5, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 10.7, "fwd_pe2": 10.0, "fwd_g1": -11.0, "fwd_g2": 7.0, "peg": 1.53, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["双孢菇", 57.0], ["金针菇", 37.0], ["冬虫夏草（生态繁育）", 2.0], ["冬虫夏草(生态繁育)", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 113.6, "ret_prev2_year": -3.2, "ret_ytd": -18.0, "ret_pivot": 121.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.4, "ret_60": -8.9, "ret_120": -36.0, "ret_250": 48.7, "mdd_250": -51.7, "vol_250": 57.3, "pos_52w": 60.2}, "S": {"duration": 21, "pricing": 47, "hard": 63, "bondness": 81}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 77%、股息率 3.9%、营收 3 年复合 2.1%、有息负债/EBITDA 4.2 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 40%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 23.0%,稳定度 85%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.4%(经营现金流/市值 11.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.0%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 40%,资本开支/折旧 2.03 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 9.5 倍 粗算,约 47%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 49%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 57%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / -9% / -36%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「种植业」22 家中位:PE 71.5 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 24.2% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 38%。", "众兴菌业:PE 比行业中位低 62.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 3.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 22.8个百分点。"]}}