{"F": {"ts_code": "002769.SZ", "name": "普路通", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "物流", "sw3": "中间产品及消费品供应链服务", "ind": "物流", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150629", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.63, "pe_ttm": 182.0557, "pb": 2.4043, "dv_ttm": 0.2059, "total_mv": 284841.634, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.5, 14.3, 19.4, 21.0, 47.4, 35.0], "rev_series": [32.6, 25.7, 15.0, 6.2, 6.2, 2.3], "np_series": [0.7, 0.4, -0.8, -1.0, -0.8, 0.3], "roe_series": [4.8, 2.5, -5.8, -7.6, -7.0, 2.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": -0.9, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": -1.3, "fcf_ttm": -2.6, "fcf_yield": -9.3, "ocf_yield": -4.6, "gm_median": 21.0, "gm_std": 12.1, "gm_stab": 0.42, "gm_chg_2022": 4.9, "npm_median": -5.6, "roe_median": -5.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 23.7, "fix_assets": 4.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.4, "capex_dep": 5.57, "interest_debt": 3.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 45.2, "debt_mv": 10.7, "payout": 17.8, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -46.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -81.0, "np_yoy": -51.5, "np_vol": 152.8, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["供应链管理服务", 36.0], ["供应链", 36.0], ["新能源", 28.0]], "ret_prev_year": 68.7, "ret_prev2_year": -18.8, "ret_ytd": -35.0, "ret_pivot": 50.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 10.7, "ret_60": -0.9, "ret_120": -31.6, "ret_250": -13.3, "mdd_250": -57.7, "vol_250": 49.5, "pos_52w": 53.6}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 36, "hard": 38, "bondness": 30}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 182 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 45%,有息负债 3 亿,经营现金流/市值 -4.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 24%,毛利率近 5 年中位 21.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -9.3%(经营现金流/市值 -4.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.0%,稳定度 42%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 24%,资本开支/折旧 5.57 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 182.1 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -13%,最大回撤 -58%,年化波动 50%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 11% / -1% / -32%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「物流」48 家中位:PE 21.4 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 10.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 43%。", "普路通:PE 比行业中位高 160.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 10.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 6.1个百分点。"]}}