{"F": {"ts_code": "002768.SZ", "name": "国恩股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "塑料", "sw3": "改性塑料", "ind": "塑料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150630", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 60.17, "pe_ttm": 22.839, "pb": 3.6888, "dv_ttm": 0.5615, "total_mv": 2627022.2, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.5, 14.8, 13.1, 10.0, 8.7, 10.7], "rev_series": [71.8, 97.7, 134.1, 174.4, 192.2, 212.5], "np_series": [7.3, 6.4, 6.6, 4.7, 6.8, 8.4], "roe_series": [26.7, 19.6, 17.6, 10.9, 14.3, 15.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 230.1, "np_ttm": 11.5, "ocf_ttm": 5.5, "fcf_ttm": -11.6, "fcf_yield": -4.4, "ocf_yield": 2.1, "gm_median": 10.7, "gm_std": 2.2, "gm_stab": 0.79, "gm_chg_2022": -6.4, "npm_median": 3.9, "roe_median": 15.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 30.5, "fix_assets": 68.9, "goodwill_ratio": 1.5, "pb_calc": 3.69, "capex_dep": 5.6, "interest_debt": 69.6, "debt_ebitda": 3.6, "debt_ratio": 59.5, "debt_mv": 26.5, "payout": 11.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 16.6, "np_cagr3": 8.3, "rev_yoy": 18.1, "np_yoy": 89.3, "np_vol": 26.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 78.0, "earn_yield": 4.4, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 19.3, "fwd_pe2": 15.5, "fwd_g1": 18.0, "fwd_g2": 25.0, "peg": 0.77, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["有机高分子改性材料", 24.0], ["绿色石化材料及新材料", 12.0], ["有机高分子复合材料", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 134.1, "ret_prev2_year": 8.9, "ret_ytd": 70.7, "ret_pivot": 419.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.9, "ret_60": 33.9, "ret_120": 66.9, "ret_250": 89.6, "mdd_250": -29.4, "vol_250": 55.2, "pos_52w": 90.3}, "S": {"duration": 44, "pricing": 37, "hard": 49, "bondness": 21}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 30%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 10.7%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.4 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 3.6 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 30%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 10.7%,稳定度 79%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.4%(经营现金流/市值 2.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 10.7%,稳定度 79%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 5.60 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 22.8 倍 粗算,约 78%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 90%,最大回撤 -29%,年化波动 55%,现价在 52 周高点的 90%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / 34% / 67%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「塑料」77 家中位:PE 41.1 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 40%。", "国恩股份:PE 比行业中位低 18.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.4个百分点。"]}}