{"F": {"ts_code": "002767.SZ", "name": "先锋电子", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "仪器仪表", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150612", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 18.08, "pe_ttm": 96.6378, "pb": 3.1146, "dv_ttm": 0.1715, "total_mv": 271200.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [26.7, 30.1, 32.4, 33.9, 35.2, 33.5], "rev_series": [3.5, 4.8, 5.6, 6.2, 6.2, 7.1], "np_series": [0.2, 0.2, 0.3, 0.1, 0.3, 0.3], "roe_series": [2.8, 3.0, 4.2, 0.9, 3.2, 3.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.7, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_yield": -1.5, "ocf_yield": -0.8, "gm_median": 33.5, "gm_std": 1.7, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": 5.8, "npm_median": 4.1, "roe_median": 3.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 14.7, "fix_assets": 1.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.11, "capex_dep": 1.04, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 31.7, "debt_mv": 0.3, "payout": 24.4, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 8.1, "np_cagr3": -6.0, "rev_yoy": 21.0, "np_yoy": 2.1, "np_vol": 108.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["无线远传智能燃气表含物联网表", 44.0], ["无线远传智能燃气表(含物联网表)", 44.0], ["工商用智能燃气表", 4.0], ["其他主营业务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 73.1, "ret_prev2_year": -17.3, "ret_ytd": -21.0, "ret_pivot": 62.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.4, "ret_60": 0.6, "ret_120": -23.4, "ret_250": -15.9, "mdd_250": -38.4, "vol_250": 45.8, "pos_52w": 72.3}, "S": {"duration": 91, "pricing": 61, "hard": 24, "bondness": 22}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 96.6 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 15%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 33.5%),硬资产占比 15%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.5%(经营现金流/市值 -0.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 33.5%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 5.8 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 15%,资本开支/折旧 1.04 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 96.6 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -16%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 1% / -23%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "先锋电子:PE 比行业中位高 46.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.1个百分点。"]}}