{"F": {"ts_code": "002766.SZ", "name": "索菱股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "汽车电子电气系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150611", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.32, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.5688, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 371453.396, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [15.7, 4.1, 22.6, 22.7, 21.7, 24.9], "rev_series": [10.3, 7.6, 8.3, 12.6, 14.0, 7.4], "np_series": [-13.1, -6.7, 0.1, 0.3, 0.6, -0.6], "roe_series": [null, null, 1.4, 4.8, 7.9, -5.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.9, "np_ttm": -1.0, "ocf_ttm": -0.7, "fcf_ttm": -1.1, "fcf_yield": -3.0, "ocf_yield": -2.0, "gm_median": 22.6, "gm_std": 7.6, "gm_stab": 0.66, "gm_chg_2022": 6.9, "npm_median": 1.0, "roe_median": 3.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.3, "fix_assets": 1.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.57, "capex_dep": 2.31, "interest_debt": 0.3, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 17.2, "debt_mv": 0.8, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -3.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -54.4, "np_yoy": -810.7, "np_vol": 148.4, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["智能舱驾", 41.0], ["智能座舱", 41.0], ["智能网联", 8.0], ["整车控制及智能网联系统", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 5.2, "ret_prev2_year": 5.5, "ret_ytd": -28.6, "ret_pivot": -4.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.4, "ret_60": 7.7, "ret_120": -18.8, "ret_250": -21.6, "mdd_250": -54.7, "vol_250": 52.5, "pos_52w": 58.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 46, "hard": 18, "bondness": 23}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.0 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 17%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 -2.0%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 11%,毛利率近 5 年中位 22.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.0%(经营现金流/市值 -2.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.6%,稳定度 66%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 6.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 2.31 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -22%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 52%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 8% / -19%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "索菱股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 14.2个百分点。"]}}