{"F": {"ts_code": "002765.SZ", "name": "蓝黛科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "其他汽车零部件", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150612", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.15, "pe_ttm": 68.2294, "pb": 1.7919, "dv_ttm": 0.6993, "total_mv": 466271.5915, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.1, 18.2, 17.7, 12.0, 13.8, 16.5], "rev_series": [24.1, 31.4, 28.7, 28.1, 35.4, 38.5], "np_series": [0.1, 2.1, 1.9, -3.7, 1.2, 1.8], "roe_series": [0.3, 10.9, 8.7, -15.9, 5.1, 7.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 37.4, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": 1.9, "fcf_ttm": -1.6, "fcf_yield": -3.3, "ocf_yield": 4.1, "gm_median": 16.5, "gm_std": 2.4, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": 4.6, "npm_median": 4.9, "roe_median": 7.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 37.6, "fix_assets": 22.2, "goodwill_ratio": 2.2, "pb_calc": 1.79, "capex_dep": 1.24, "interest_debt": 13.1, "debt_ebitda": 2.7, "debt_ratio": 55.9, "debt_mv": 28.1, "payout": 22.1, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 10.3, "np_cagr3": -0.1, "rev_yoy": -6.5, "np_yoy": -106.6, "np_vol": 1597.0, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.5, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 24.9, "fwd_pe2": 19.5, "fwd_g1": 174.0, "fwd_g2": 28.0, "peg": 0.89, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 40.0], ["触控显示模组总成", 12.0], ["动力传动零部件", 10.0], ["传动零部件", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 56.7, "ret_prev2_year": 28.6, "ret_ytd": -46.3, "ret_pivot": 53.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.7, "ret_60": -5.8, "ret_120": -34.2, "ret_250": -47.2, "mdd_250": -60.7, "vol_250": 39.9, "pos_52w": 45.6}, "S": {"duration": 82, "pricing": 49, "hard": 60, "bondness": 30}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 38%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 16.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.6 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 2.7 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 38%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 16.5%,稳定度 86%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.3%(经营现金流/市值 4.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.5%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 1.24 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 68.2 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -47%,最大回撤 -61%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 46%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / -6% / -34%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "蓝黛科技:PE 比行业中位高 38.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 12.1个百分点。"]}}