{"F": {"ts_code": "002760.SZ", "name": "凤形股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "磨具磨料", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150611", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.83, "pe_ttm": 93.1358, "pb": 2.2967, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 192543.8521, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.5, 22.8, 20.6, 19.3, 14.4, 18.1], "rev_series": [7.0, 9.5, 8.2, 6.9, 5.9, 6.3], "np_series": [0.6, 1.0, 0.6, -0.6, -0.6, 0.2], "roe_series": [10.0, 12.2, 6.5, -6.3, -7.1, 2.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.7, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_yield": -2.1, "ocf_yield": -1.9, "gm_median": 19.3, "gm_std": 2.8, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -4.9, "npm_median": 3.2, "roe_median": 2.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 20.8, "fix_assets": 2.9, "goodwill_ratio": 2.9, "pb_calc": 2.3, "capex_dep": 0.11, "interest_debt": 0.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.9, "debt_ratio": 39.8, "debt_mv": 2.5, "payout": null, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -8.1, "np_cagr3": -31.4, "rev_yoy": 12.8, "np_yoy": 6.9, "np_vol": 109.5, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["高铬耐磨产品", 60.0], ["船电系统解决方案及特种电机", 38.0], ["其他业务", 2.0], ["其他主营业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 27.7, "ret_prev2_year": -22.1, "ret_ytd": -17.9, "ret_pivot": 38.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.6, "ret_60": 0.2, "ret_120": -23.7, "ret_250": -19.9, "mdd_250": -42.3, "vol_250": 42.0, "pos_52w": 69.5}, "S": {"duration": 90, "pricing": 44, "hard": 33, "bondness": 23}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 93 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 40%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 -1.9%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 21%,毛利率近 5 年中位 19.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.1%(经营现金流/市值 -1.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.3%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 21%,资本开支/折旧 0.11 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 93.1 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -20%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / 0% / -24%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "凤形股份:PE 比行业中位高 42.5倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 9.2个百分点;固定资产占比 与行业中位持平。"]}}