{"F": {"ts_code": "002758.SZ", "name": "浙农股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "农化制品", "sw3": "复合肥", "ind": "农化制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150527", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.88, "pe_ttm": 7.7697, "pb": 0.9158, "dv_ttm": 3.5428, "total_mv": 460696.62, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [7.9, 9.3, 7.8, 6.2, 5.8, 5.9], "rev_series": [287.5, 351.4, 418.1, 409.4, 419.8, 471.2], "np_series": [3.5, 6.6, 6.1, 3.8, 3.8, 5.5], "roe_series": [19.4, 20.1, 15.8, 8.8, 8.2, 11.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 531.4, "np_ttm": 5.9, "ocf_ttm": 2.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.9, "fcf_yield": -1.8, "ocf_yield": 4.8, "gm_median": 6.2, "gm_std": 1.4, "gm_stab": 0.78, "gm_chg_2022": -0.1, "npm_median": 2.2, "roe_median": 11.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 5.4, "fix_assets": 13.7, "goodwill_ratio": 1.5, "pb_calc": 0.92, "capex_dep": 2.22, "interest_debt": 40.5, "debt_ebitda": 2.5, "debt_ratio": 68.0, "debt_mv": 87.9, "payout": 40.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.1, "np_cagr3": -3.7, "rev_yoy": 27.0, "np_yoy": 36.8, "np_vol": 43.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 36.0, "earn_yield": 12.9, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 10.7, "fwd_pe2": 10.0, "fwd_g1": -27.0, "fwd_g2": 7.0, "peg": 1.53, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 45.0], ["化肥", 24.0], ["原材料", 10.0], ["化工原料", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 20.0, "ret_prev2_year": -14.3, "ret_ytd": -8.8, "ret_pivot": 34.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 14.1, "ret_60": 17.3, "ret_120": -15.9, "ret_250": -0.9, "mdd_250": -30.9, "vol_250": 32.2, "pos_52w": 83.1}, "S": {"duration": 18, "pricing": 38, "hard": 9, "bondness": 59}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 40%、股息率 3.5%、营收 3 年复合 4.1%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.5 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 5%,毛利率近 5 年中位 6.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.8%(经营现金流/市值 4.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 6.2%,稳定度 78%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 5%,资本开支/折旧 2.22 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 7.8 倍 粗算,约 36%(1 − 5/PE)。<40%,估值靠当期。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -1%,最大回撤 -31%,年化波动 32%,现价在 52 周高点的 83%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 14% / 17% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「农化制品」62 家中位:PE 20.8 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 19.9% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 45%。", "浙农股份:PE 比行业中位低 13.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 13.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 30.2个百分点。"]}}