{"F": {"ts_code": "002757.SZ", "name": "南兴股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "其他专用设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150527", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 18.09, "pe_ttm": 38.4031, "pb": 2.6136, "dv_ttm": 1.9348, "total_mv": 534479.7231, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.4, 23.5, 22.3, 19.5, 19.0, 16.0], "rev_series": [21.3, 27.8, 29.6, 36.3, 33.3, 34.1], "np_series": [2.6, 2.9, 2.9, 1.7, -1.8, 1.2], "roe_series": [13.6, 13.7, 12.5, 7.3, -8.1, 6.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 36.1, "np_ttm": 1.4, "ocf_ttm": 4.2, "fcf_ttm": 2.6, "fcf_yield": 4.9, "ocf_yield": 7.8, "gm_median": 19.5, "gm_std": 2.6, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -3.1, "npm_median": 5.0, "roe_median": 7.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 28.0, "fix_assets": 11.1, "goodwill_ratio": 3.0, "pb_calc": 2.61, "capex_dep": 1.43, "interest_debt": 8.4, "debt_ebitda": 2.4, "debt_ratio": 45.6, "debt_mv": 15.7, "payout": 85.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.8, "np_cagr3": -25.5, "rev_yoy": 12.1, "np_yoy": 32.0, "np_vol": 118.2, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 87.0, "earn_yield": 2.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["IDC及云计算相关服务", 30.0], ["自动封边机", 8.0], ["数控钻、多排钻", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 28.6, "ret_prev2_year": 2.7, "ret_ytd": -6.1, "ret_pivot": 65.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.3, "ret_60": -13.1, "ret_120": -12.9, "ret_250": -12.6, "mdd_250": -52.9, "vol_250": 61.0, "pos_52w": 56.5}, "S": {"duration": 62, "pricing": 45, "hard": 45, "bondness": 64}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 38.4 倍、股息率 1.9%、毛利率近 5 年中位 19.5%、固定资产占比 28%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.4 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 28%,毛利率近 5 年中位 19.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.9%(经营现金流/市值 7.8%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.5%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 28%,资本开支/折旧 1.43 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 38.4 倍 粗算,约 87%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -13%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 61%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -13% / -13%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "南兴股份:PE 比行业中位低 3.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 10.0个百分点。"]}}