{"F": {"ts_code": "002756.SZ", "name": "永兴材料", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "能源金属", "sw3": "锂", "ind": "能源金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150515", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 42.93, "pe_ttm": 18.9774, "pb": 1.7195, "dv_ttm": 1.6026, "total_mv": 2314363.1688, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [12.3, 17.3, 52.3, 37.0, 18.1, 15.8], "rev_series": [49.7, 72.0, 155.8, 121.9, 80.7, 74.2], "np_series": [2.6, 8.9, 63.2, 34.1, 10.4, 6.6], "roe_series": [7.0, 19.6, 73.0, 27.0, 8.2, 5.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 88.1, "np_ttm": 12.2, "ocf_ttm": 13.2, "fcf_ttm": 11.9, "fcf_yield": 5.1, "ocf_yield": 5.7, "gm_median": 18.1, "gm_std": 14.4, "gm_stab": 0.21, "gm_chg_2022": 40.0, "npm_median": 13.2, "roe_median": 19.6, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 18.8, "fix_assets": 29.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.3, "pb_calc": 1.72, "capex_dep": 0.42, "interest_debt": 6.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 13.2, "debt_mv": 2.8, "payout": 50.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -21.9, "np_cagr3": -52.9, "rev_yoy": 37.6, "np_yoy": 139.2, "np_vol": 262.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 74.0, "earn_yield": 5.3, "consensus_n": 9, "fwd_pe": 11.2, "fwd_pe2": 9.5, "fwd_g1": 69.0, "fwd_g2": 18.0, "peg": 0.62, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["碳酸锂", 19.0], ["棒材", 18.0], ["线材", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 47.5, "ret_prev2_year": -24.7, "ret_ytd": -20.3, "ret_pivot": 48.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -11.6, "ret_60": -31.7, "ret_120": -38.2, "ret_250": 22.9, "mdd_250": -53.8, "vol_250": 59.3, "pos_52w": 48.8}, "S": {"duration": 38, "pricing": 70, "hard": 30, "bondness": 49}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["商品定价", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 139%,PE TTM 19.0 倍 但前瞻 PE 11.2 倍,PEG 0.62。", "自由现金流 11.9 亿(正),次年预期增速 18%(9 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 18.1%),硬资产占比 19%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.1%(经营现金流/市值 5.7%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.1%,稳定度 21%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 40.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 0.42 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 19.0 倍 粗算,约 74%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 23%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 59%,现价在 52 周高点的 49%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -12% / -32% / -38%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「能源金属」11 家中位:PE 17.9 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 18.4% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 31%。", "永兴材料:PE 比行业中位高 1.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 11.7个百分点。"]}}