{"F": {"ts_code": "002755.SZ", "name": "奥赛康", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "化学制药", "sw3": "化学制剂", "ind": "化学制药", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150515", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.7, "pe_ttm": 55.0554, "pb": 3.3676, "dv_ttm": 1.0256, "total_mv": 1085947.668, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [91.8, 91.1, 87.0, 80.8, 81.3, 80.2], "rev_series": [37.8, 31.1, 18.7, 14.4, 17.8, 17.8], "np_series": [7.2, 3.8, -2.3, -1.5, 1.6, 2.4], "roe_series": [26.0, 12.2, -7.3, -5.1, 5.4, 7.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 16.4, "np_ttm": 2.0, "ocf_ttm": 3.8, "fcf_ttm": 1.3, "fcf_yield": 1.2, "ocf_yield": 3.5, "gm_median": 81.3, "gm_std": 4.3, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -4.8, "npm_median": 7.2, "roe_median": 5.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.7, "fix_assets": 3.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.37, "capex_dep": 3.59, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 24.9, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 59.3, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -1.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -13.5, "np_yoy": -24.6, "np_vol": 120.8, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.8, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 28.2, "fwd_pe2": 20.5, "fwd_g1": 95.0, "fwd_g2": 37.0, "peg": 0.76, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["口服固体", 30.0], ["注射剂及其他", 20.0]], "ret_prev_year": 30.0, "ret_prev2_year": 17.9, "ret_ytd": -27.8, "ret_pivot": 17.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -15.6, "ret_60": -7.1, "ret_120": -19.5, "ret_250": -54.0, "mdd_250": -54.2, "vol_250": 45.8, "pos_52w": 47.1}, "S": {"duration": 75, "pricing": 78, "hard": 14, "bondness": 47}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 2.0 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 55 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 25%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 3.5%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 81.3%),硬资产占比 9%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.2%(经营现金流/市值 3.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 81.3%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 3.59 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 55.1 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -54%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 47%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -16% / -7% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制药」157 家中位:PE 37.5 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 52.5% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 38%。", "奥赛康:PE 比行业中位高 17.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 28.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 21.1个百分点。"]}}