{"F": {"ts_code": "002753.SZ", "name": "永东股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "橡胶", "sw3": "炭黑", "ind": "橡胶", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150519", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.73, "pe_ttm": 90.4567, "pb": 1.0813, "dv_ttm": 0.6751, "total_mv": 288501.3035, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [12.0, 12.7, 4.4, 5.6, 5.5, 3.6], "rev_series": [23.9, 37.6, 45.0, 45.6, 42.3, 38.5], "np_series": [1.6, 3.2, 0.4, 1.0, 1.1, 0.4], "roe_series": [8.5, 15.3, 1.8, 4.5, 4.8, 1.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 42.8, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": -2.6, "fcf_ttm": -3.5, "fcf_yield": -12.3, "ocf_yield": -9.2, "gm_median": 5.5, "gm_std": 3.3, "gm_stab": 0.4, "gm_chg_2022": -7.6, "npm_median": 2.2, "roe_median": 4.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 38.9, "fix_assets": 15.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.07, "capex_dep": 0.89, "interest_debt": 9.5, "debt_ebitda": 5.7, "debt_ratio": 33.4, "debt_mv": 33.1, "payout": 50.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -5.1, "np_cagr3": -0.4, "rev_yoy": 22.9, "np_yoy": -17.6, "np_vol": 94.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 30.6, "fwd_pe2": 15.7, "fwd_g1": 196.0, "fwd_g2": 95.0, "peg": 0.32, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 38.0], ["炭黑系列产品", 23.0], ["炭黑产品", 23.0], ["煤焦油加工产品", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 16.6, "ret_prev2_year": -23.3, "ret_ytd": -5.0, "ret_pivot": 30.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 9.8, "ret_60": 6.7, "ret_120": -17.4, "ret_250": -6.3, "mdd_250": -31.0, "vol_250": 30.8, "pos_52w": 82.2}, "S": {"duration": 90, "pricing": 20, "hard": 62, "bondness": 57}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 39%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 5.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.6 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 5.7 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 39%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 5.5%,稳定度 40%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -12.3%(经营现金流/市值 -9.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 5.5%,稳定度 40%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 39%,资本开支/折旧 0.89 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 90.5 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -6%,最大回撤 -31%,年化波动 31%,现价在 52 周高点的 82%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / 7% / -17%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「橡胶」23 家中位:PE 29.4 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 23.7% / 固定资产占比 27% / 分红率 47%。", "永东股份:PE 比行业中位高 61.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 18.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 11.9个百分点。"]}}