{"F": {"ts_code": "002752.SZ", "name": "昇兴股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "包装印刷", "sw3": "金属包装", "ind": "包装印刷", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150422", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.2, "pe_ttm": 15.0167, "pb": 1.6519, "dv_ttm": 1.6129, "total_mv": 605689.408, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [11.1, 10.8, 9.5, 13.4, 14.5, 11.0], "rev_series": [29.0, 51.7, 68.8, 70.9, 71.3, 71.7], "np_series": [0.1, 1.7, 2.1, 3.3, 4.2, 3.1], "roe_series": [0.7, 7.5, 7.5, 11.2, 13.0, 8.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 77.0, "np_ttm": 4.0, "ocf_ttm": 8.5, "fcf_ttm": 4.9, "fcf_yield": 8.1, "ocf_yield": 14.1, "gm_median": 11.0, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.83, "gm_chg_2022": -1.6, "npm_median": 4.2, "roe_median": 8.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 37.8, "fix_assets": 28.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.9, "pb_calc": 1.65, "capex_dep": 1.15, "interest_debt": 10.3, "debt_ebitda": 1.2, "debt_ratio": 51.8, "debt_mv": 17.0, "payout": 29.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 1.4, "np_cagr3": 13.6, "rev_yoy": 16.3, "np_yoy": 65.3, "np_vol": 416.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 67.0, "earn_yield": 6.7, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 13.5, "fwd_pe2": 11.2, "fwd_g1": 11.0, "fwd_g2": 21.0, "peg": 0.64, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["易拉罐&铝瓶", 32.0], ["易拉罐", 32.0], ["其他业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 6.3, "ret_prev2_year": 26.0, "ret_ytd": -5.2, "ret_pivot": 49.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.4, "ret_60": 4.0, "ret_120": 0.6, "ret_250": 7.8, "mdd_250": -36.6, "vol_250": 50.2, "pos_52w": 71.2}, "S": {"duration": 31, "pricing": 41, "hard": 60, "bondness": 42}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["成长兑现", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 38%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 11.0%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.6 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 1.2 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 38%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 11.0%,稳定度 83%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 8.1%(经营现金流/市值 14.1%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.0%,稳定度 83%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 1.15 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 15.0 倍 粗算,约 67%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 8%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 50%,现价在 52 周高点的 71%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 4% / 1%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「包装印刷」46 家中位:PE 38.9 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 33% / 分红率 50%。", "昇兴股份:PE 比行业中位低 23.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 9.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.0个百分点。"]}}