{"F": {"ts_code": "002747.SZ", "name": "埃斯顿", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "自动化设备", "sw3": "机器人", "ind": "自动化设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150320", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 29.88, "pe_ttm": 144.9975, "pb": 8.8308, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 2894374.3068, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [34.1, 32.5, 33.9, 31.9, 29.6, 29.4], "rev_series": [25.1, 30.2, 38.8, 46.5, 40.1, 48.9], "np_series": [1.3, 1.2, 1.7, 1.4, -8.1, 0.4], "roe_series": [7.7, 5.6, 6.2, 4.9, -36.1, 2.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 49.2, "np_ttm": 2.0, "ocf_ttm": 6.7, "fcf_ttm": 4.3, "fcf_yield": 1.5, "ocf_yield": 2.3, "gm_median": 31.9, "gm_std": 1.7, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -0.3, "npm_median": 2.9, "roe_median": 4.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 14.5, "fix_assets": 15.2, "goodwill_ratio": 9.3, "pb_calc": 8.83, "capex_dep": 2.32, "interest_debt": 34.9, "debt_ebitda": 7.6, "debt_ratio": 68.2, "debt_mv": 12.0, "payout": 37.5, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 8.0, "np_cagr3": -35.3, "rev_yoy": 1.1, "np_yoy": 2314.2, "np_vol": 295.1, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.7, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 123.5, "fwd_pe2": 97.0, "fwd_g1": 17.0, "fwd_g2": 27.0, "peg": 4.57, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["工业机器人及智能制造系统", 83.0], ["自动化核心部件及运动控制系统", 17.0]], "ret_prev_year": 28.1, "ret_prev2_year": -0.2, "ret_ytd": 26.1, "ret_pivot": 151.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -14.9, "ret_60": -10.4, "ret_120": 36.2, "ret_250": 20.6, "mdd_250": -43.0, "vol_250": 56.2, "pos_52w": 61.0}, "S": {"duration": 97, "pricing": 56, "hard": 23, "bondness": 40}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 145.0 倍,估值里约 97% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 14%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(5 篇研报)前瞻 PE 123.5 倍,次年 97.0 倍,PEG 4.57。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 31.9%),硬资产占比 14%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.5%(经营现金流/市值 2.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 31.9%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.3 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 2.32 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 145.0 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 21%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 56%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -15% / -10% / 36%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「自动化设备」93 家中位:PE 77.4 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 33.9% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 42%。", "埃斯顿:PE 比行业中位高 67.6倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点。"]}}