{"F": {"ts_code": "002746.SZ", "name": "仙坛股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "养殖业", "sw3": "肉鸡养殖", "ind": "养殖业", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150216", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.76, "pe_ttm": 20.2876, "pb": 1.2607, "dv_ttm": 4.4379, "total_mv": 581724.1612, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [10.2, 1.7, 2.9, 3.8, 5.2, 6.5], "rev_series": [31.9, 33.1, 51.0, 57.8, 52.9, 57.7], "np_series": [3.5, 0.8, 1.3, 2.3, 2.1, 2.4], "roe_series": [9.1, 1.8, 2.9, 5.0, 4.5, 5.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 62.3, "np_ttm": 2.9, "ocf_ttm": 4.0, "fcf_ttm": -1.4, "fcf_yield": -2.4, "ocf_yield": 6.9, "gm_median": 3.8, "gm_std": 1.7, "gm_stab": 0.55, "gm_chg_2022": -7.3, "npm_median": 4.3, "roe_median": 4.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 25.1, "fix_assets": 21.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.26, "capex_dep": 1.31, "interest_debt": 25.9, "debt_ebitda": 3.5, "debt_ratio": 43.0, "debt_mv": 44.6, "payout": 104.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.2, "np_cagr3": 23.7, "rev_yoy": 17.9, "np_yoy": 32.0, "np_vol": 53.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 75.0, "earn_yield": 4.9, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 16.1, "fwd_pe2": 14.7, "fwd_g1": 26.0, "fwd_g2": 10.0, "peg": 1.61, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["鸡肉产品", 32.0], ["鸡产品", 32.0], ["商品代肉鸡及其他", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 1.4, "ret_prev2_year": -8.7, "ret_ytd": 15.2, "ret_pivot": 44.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 9.2, "ret_60": 24.7, "ret_120": 7.6, "ret_250": 10.6, "mdd_250": -22.0, "vol_250": 25.5, "pos_52w": 100.0}, "S": {"duration": 40, "pricing": 25, "hard": 40, "bondness": 88}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 104%、股息率 4.4%、营收 3 年复合 4.2%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.5 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 25%,毛利率近 5 年中位 3.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.4%(经营现金流/市值 6.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 3.8%,稳定度 55%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 25%,资本开支/折旧 1.31 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 20.3 倍 粗算,约 75%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 11%,最大回撤 -22%,年化波动 26%,现价在 52 周高点的 100%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / 25% / 8%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「养殖业」22 家中位:PE 39.4 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 11.1% / 固定资产占比 50% / 分红率 50%。", "仙坛股份:PE 比行业中位低 19.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 25.1个百分点。"]}}