{"F": {"ts_code": "002745.SZ", "name": "木林森", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "光学光电子", "sw3": "LED", "ind": "光学光电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150217", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.76, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.3249, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1596963.0464, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.4, 33.3, 27.0, 29.1, 27.9, 26.0], "rev_series": [173.8, 186.1, 165.2, 175.4, 169.1, 174.4], "np_series": [3.0, 11.6, 1.9, 4.3, 3.7, -14.8], "roe_series": [2.6, 9.0, 1.5, 3.2, 2.8, -12.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 193.1, "np_ttm": -9.7, "ocf_ttm": 16.6, "fcf_ttm": 5.7, "fcf_yield": 3.6, "ocf_yield": 10.4, "gm_median": 27.9, "gm_std": 2.5, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -1.3, "npm_median": 2.2, "roe_median": 2.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 20.0, "fix_assets": 50.6, "goodwill_ratio": 5.9, "pb_calc": 1.32, "capex_dep": 1.4, "interest_debt": 15.6, "debt_ebitda": 1.0, "debt_ratio": 50.1, "debt_mv": 9.8, "payout": 139.7, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 1.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 23.7, "np_yoy": 330.7, "np_vol": 261.1, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["木林森品牌", 17.0], ["木林森", 17.0], ["朗德万斯系品牌", 15.0]], "ret_prev_year": 10.4, "ret_prev2_year": 9.6, "ret_ytd": 12.4, "ret_pivot": 64.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.9, "ret_60": 16.6, "ret_120": 20.0, "ret_250": 15.1, "mdd_250": -27.1, "vol_250": 49.7, "pos_52w": 83.8}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 52, "hard": 32, "bondness": 56}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -9.7 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 50%,有息负债 16 亿,经营现金流/市值 10.4%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 20%,毛利率近 5 年中位 27.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.6%(经营现金流/市值 10.4%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.9%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 20%,资本开支/折旧 1.40 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 15%,最大回撤 -27%,年化波动 50%,现价在 52 周高点的 84%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / 17% / 20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光学光电子」95 家中位:PE 61.6 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 19.3% / 固定资产占比 31% / 分红率 43%。", "木林森:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 8.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 11.4个百分点。"]}}