{"F": {"ts_code": "002741.SZ", "name": "光华科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "电子化学品Ⅱ", "sw3": "电子化学品Ⅲ", "ind": "电子化学品Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150216", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 22.85, "pe_ttm": 75.4463, "pb": 5.3965, "dv_ttm": 0.4343, "total_mv": 1070756.2555, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [15.9, 15.7, 15.3, 2.2, 9.3, 13.8], "rev_series": [20.1, 25.8, 33.0, 27.0, 25.9, 29.6], "np_series": [0.4, 0.6, 1.2, -4.3, -2.0, 1.0], "roe_series": [2.8, 4.3, 7.0, -27.6, -12.9, 5.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 39.3, "np_ttm": 1.4, "ocf_ttm": -2.4, "fcf_ttm": -3.1, "fcf_yield": -2.9, "ocf_yield": -2.3, "gm_median": 13.8, "gm_std": 5.1, "gm_stab": 0.63, "gm_chg_2022": -0.6, "npm_median": 2.4, "roe_median": 4.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 26.1, "fix_assets": 10.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.4, "capex_dep": 0.56, "interest_debt": 8.9, "debt_ebitda": 2.6, "debt_ratio": 52.2, "debt_mv": 8.4, "payout": 45.5, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -3.5, "np_cagr3": -3.8, "rev_yoy": 75.3, "np_yoy": 67.6, "np_vol": 226.1, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.3, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 42.3, "fwd_pe2": 30.1, "fwd_g1": 78.0, "fwd_g2": 41.0, "peg": 1.03, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["PCB化学品", 69.0], ["锂电池材料", 16.0], ["化学试剂", 12.0], ["配套贸易", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 21.6, "ret_prev2_year": 11.2, "ret_ytd": 14.5, "ret_pivot": 107.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -13.1, "ret_60": -17.3, "ret_120": 11.5, "ret_250": 9.0, "mdd_250": -51.7, "vol_250": 62.7, "pos_52w": 55.0}, "S": {"duration": 85, "pricing": 36, "hard": 42, "bondness": 46}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 1.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 75 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 52%,有息负债 9 亿,经营现金流/市值 -2.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 26%,毛利率近 5 年中位 13.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.9%(经营现金流/市值 -2.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.8%,稳定度 63%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 26%,资本开支/折旧 0.56 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 75.4 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 9%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 63%,现价在 52 周高点的 55%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -13% / -17% / 12%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电子化学品Ⅱ」36 家中位:PE 93.9 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 29.9% / 固定资产占比 33% / 分红率 44%。", "光华科技:PE 比行业中位低 18.5倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 16.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.8个百分点。"]}}